Saturday college primer

Indiana vs. Iowa
(Saturday, noon EST, ESPN)

What to watch for:

• The Iowa Hawkeyes suffered a devastating blow to their offense this week when they learned that RB Adam Robinson will likely miss the rest of the regular season with a high ankle sprain. The talented freshman led the team in rushing with 629 yards and has been the most consistent playmaker on the Hawkeyes offense. The team will now lean on another freshman, Brandon Wegher, who is penciled in as the starter vs. Indiana. Wegher is a talented kid who will have the luxury of running behind one of the nation’s top offensive lines, but it’s a lot to ask of a freshman who has only averaged 3.7 yards per carry this season.

• Speaking of talented offensive lines, Iowa tackles Kyle Calloway and Bryan Bulaga will have their hands full with Indiana’s athletic defensive end duo of Jammie Kirlew and Greg Middleton. Both have the ability to consistently create pressure off the edge and get after the passer. This is one matchup scouts will be watching closely.

• I might be getting a little ahead of myself with this, but if the Hawkeyes are to have any chance of reaching the Rose Bowl, they need better play from QB Ricky Stanzi. Stanzi is completing only 57.1 percent of his passes and has struggled at times to create plays in the pass game. He did, however, orchestrate a game-winning final drive last week vs. Michigan State and might start building on that momentum the rest of the season.

Miami vs. Wake Forest
(Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EST, ABC)

What to watch for:

• The key one-on-one matchup to watch is Miami OG Orlando Franklin vs. Wake Forest DT Boo Robinson. Robinson is a short, squatty interior lineman who possesses a good first step and impressive power in his base vs. the run game. Franklin is a massive, long-armed guard who has the size to engulf Robinson at the point of attack and wash him away from plays once he gets hold of him. Robinson’s needs to use his hands and initial burst to avoid Franklin’s reach off the snap and force him to be reactive and not proactive in the run game.

• The Wake Forest offense has been in a bit of a lull in recent weeks, scoring only 13 points in its last two outings. When the Deacons look to generate some big plays in the pass game, expect them to target Miami CB Sam Shields. Shields is a converted wideout who has it all physically but struggles to flip his hips and find the football down the field. Look for the Wake Forest coaching staff to try to get WR Marshall Williams in some one-on-one situations with Shield’s down the field, forcing him to play with his back to the ball.

• If I told you that the nation’s top senior cornerback played on the Wake Forest defense, would you believe me? Demon Deacons CB Brandon Ghee is a big, physical athlete who showcases the fluidity, power and range to develop into the type of all-around cornerback NFL teams crave. He showcases impressive closing speed in the pass game, has a knack for creating turnovers in run support and looks capable of starting in an NFL secondary in the future.

Texas vs. Oklahoma State
(Saturday, 8 p.m. EST, ABC)

What to watch for:

• Texas QB Colt McCoy struggled two weeks ago vs. an aggressive Oklahoma defense, only to rebound and absolutely carve up the Missouri Tigers’ secondary last week. The difference: pressure. The Oklahoma State defense needs to take a page out of the Sooners’ playbook and try to generate pressure up the gut on McCoy. The problem is that the Cowboys don’t possess the same amount of talent that the Sooners do up front. Expect linebackers Andre Sexton and Patrick Lavine to consistently shoot the A-gaps and penetrate inside, forcing McCoy to get rid of the football before he wants to.

• The one guy on the Texas defense who doesn’t get nearly as much credit as he deserves is speed rushing defensive end Eddie Jones. On tape, Jones looks like the Longhorns’ most explosive pass rusher (yes, more explosive than Sergio Kindle or Sam Acho) and does a great job firing off the ball, dropping his shoulder and turning the corner. He’s a bit undersized at 6-3, 258, but he has the ability to reach Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson and disrupt the Cowboys’ pass game off the edge.

• There’s a chance Oklahoma State running back Kendall Hunter will return for this one, but even if he does, head coach Mike Gundy has said he will see only limited carries. If so, senior RB Keith Toston will again carry the load inside. Toston has done a great job improving his draft stock since being thrust into a starting role. He has proven to not only be an efficient inside runner but also has 13 receptions over his past three games and can create big plays out of the backfield.

USC vs. Oregon
(Saturday, 8 p.m. EST, ABC)

What to watch for:

• I don’t know if there’s a hotter team in the country than the Oregon Ducks. They’ve run off six consecutive victories since their season-opening loss to Boise State and have an average margin of victory at home this season of 23.5 points. Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest places in the country to play, and it will be key for USC freshman quarterback Matt Barkley to handle the crowd noise early and take care of the ball.

• The Oregon defense gave up a fair share of yards last week to Washington (395) but always seemed to tighten up once the Huskies got into the red zone. Linebackers Casey Matthews and Spencer Paysinger are definitely the strength of the defense, and their ability to find the ball and close on plays near the end zone will be key if they want to keep pace with the Trojans.

• How do head coach Pete Carroll and the USC defense slow down Oregon’s spread offense? The Trojans’ defense was gashed last week vs. Oregon State RB Jacquizz Rodgers and will face a similar type of runner in LaMichael James. The Southern Cal front four has not been as dominant as past years and has struggled to consistently shed blocks and find the football in the run game. To make matters worse, QB Jeremiah Masoli does a great job hiding the ball on his option reads, forcing defenses to read and react at the last second. So if the USC front four struggles as much as I think they will trying to stop the run, it may open up things for TE Ed Dickson down the field once the Trojans are forced to put extra men in the box.

Follow me on Twitter: WesBunting

Biggs: Eagles call Westbrook questionable

In the same week that the NFL was on Capitol Hill talking about concussions, Philadelphia Eagles running back Brian Westbrook is questionable for Sunday’s game with a bruise of the brain.

In its simplest form, that’s what a concussion is—a bruise of the brain—and coach Andy Reid said it will be a game-time decision if his playmaker will suit up to face the New York Giants in a key NFC East showdown. Westbrook was knocked out in Monday’s win at Washington, and he has not practiced this week.

“This is going to end up being a game day decision I’m sure,” Reid said. “These things take time and they’re all different so we’ll just see how it works here.

“As long as he’s OK’d and he’s cleared then I think you’re OK. These are experts you are talking about that are looking at these things. I know he wants to play. We have to listen to the doctors, both Brian and myself and (trainer) Rick (Burkholder).”

The risk Westbrook, not the Eagles run, is that playing again so soon could make him more susceptible to another concussion. According to Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer, all signs point to the team giving the back off on the short week and turning the workload over to rookie LeSean McCoy. It’s why the club drafted him in the second round after all. It’s the decision that makes sense too.

Follow me at Twitter: BradBiggs

Biggs: Fines come out of Cardinals-Giants game

NFL charities cashed in when the league got done handing out fines coming out of Arizona’s upset last Sunday night at the New York Giants.

Cardinals safety Antrel Rolle was docked $7,500 for a hit on tight end Kevin Boss that the league deemed to be “unnecessarily striking a defenseless receiver.’’ According to Mike Garafolo of the Newark Star-Ledger, Boss felt after effects from the hit for a few days, but still managed to hang on for the catch on the play.

Cardinals right tackle Levi Brown was fined $5,000 for a chop block.

The Giants had to pay up too. Running back Ahmad Bradshaw was fined $5,000 for striking Cardinals defensive tackle Darnell Dockett in the facemask, and safety Michael Johnson got a $5,000 for a shot to the head of quarterback Kurt Warner.

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Dallas' Ratliff listed as questionable with sprained knee

From ESPNDallas.com:

Pro Bowl nose tackle Jay Ratliff sprained his right knee during Thursday’s practice and is listed as questionable for the Dallas Cowboys’ game against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday.

“There is slight swelling,” coach Wade Phillips said. “We did an MRI. We think it’s something that will get better. How quickly is the question.”

Ratliff, who did not practice Friday, underwent treatment for swelling in his right knee after practice. He has two sacks and a team-leading five tackles for loss among his 31 tackles this season. He also is fourth on the team with 10 quarterback pressures.

Junior Siavii (6-5, 320), who has been effective playing about 15 snaps per game, will start if Ratliff is unable to play. Coaches have credited Siavii with 15 tackles this season, including seven on 16 plays in last week’s win over the Atlanta Falcons.

“He’s improved as we played each game,” Phillips said of Siavii, who had been out of football the previous three seasons. “I think he’s ready to play.”

DE Marcus Spears has worked at nose tackle the last two days and would split time with Siavii. Jason Hatcher would replace Ratliff in the nickel and dime packages.

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Vikes' Winfield ruled out with injured foot

From the Associated Press:

EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. — Minnesota Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield will not play on Sunday against the Green Bay Packers.

The Pro Bowler was listed as out in Friday’s injury report. He also missed last week’s game against Pittsburgh because of the injured right foot.

Coach Brad Childress says he saw Winfield make progress throughout the week.

But the Vikings have a bye after Green Bay, so they could be playing it safe with one of their most important defenders.

Receiver Bernard Berrian is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury.

Receiver and returner Percy Harvin returned to practice after missing Thursday and is listed as questionable with an illness.

Sack differential: a key statistic

Sack differential. It’s the number of sacks a team’s defense gets minus the number of sacks its offense gives up. It’s often said that games are won and lost in the trenches, and today, I’m going to show you why that’s true and why the maxim also applies to the world of fantasy football.

Brace yourselves because I’m about to drop some knowledge.

WHAT THE SACK DIFFERENTIAL CHART TELLS US

You win more games with a positive sack differential

Through eight weeks, 17 teams currently have a positive sack differential. Those 17 teams have a combined 70-37 (.654) record. All three undefeated teams (Saints, Broncos, Colts) fall into this category, as do the 6-1 Vikings.

Twelve of the 17 teams have winning records, while two are currently .500 (Bears, Ravens). Only three of the 17 teams (17.6 percent) with a positive sack differential have losing records (Titans, Dolphins, Seahawks).

You lose more games with a negative sack differential

Fourteen teams currently have a negative sack differential. Those teams are a combined 31-62 (.333) through eight weeks. Two of the NFL’s three winless teams (Buccaneers, Rams) fall into this category, as do the one-win Browns, Lions and Chiefs.

Of the 14 teams with a negative sack differential, eight currently have losing records (57.1 percent). Three of the 14 (21.4 percent) have winning records (Texans, Jets, Packers), while three are at .500 (Jaguars, Chargers, 49ers).

Plus 6 or better is money

Seven NFL teams have a sack differential of plus-6 or better. Those teams are a combined 36-9 (.800) on the season.

None of those seven teams has more than two losses. In addition, five (Indianapolis, Denver, N.Y. Giants, Minnesota, Cincinnati) are currently on top of their divisions.

The top and the bottom are very far apart

The top four teams in sack differential are a combined 23-3 (.885).

The bottom four teams in sack differential are a combined 9-16 (.360).

Did you notice…

That of the six teams with the worst records in the NFL, five (Cleveland, Kansas City, Detroit, Tampa Bay and St. Louis) rank 22nd or worse in sack differential?

Yes, this translates to fantasy football

Using the standard scoring system, check out how the top five and top 10 at each fantasy position break down based on a positive sack differential.

Quarterbacks

Four of the top five fantasy quarterbacks play for teams with a positive sack differential (Brady, Roethlisberger, P. Manning, Drew Brees). Matt Schaub’s (No. 1) Houston Texans are currently minus-3. What’s interesting is that the Houston defense ranks 29th in the NFL in sacks, which is why the differential is not in Schaub’s favor.

Seven of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks play for teams with a positive sack differential (the names listed above, plus Carson Palmer, Brett Favre and Joe Flacco). Aaron Rodgers (No. 6) and Philip Rivers (No. 8) fall into the negative sack differential category. Why? Because their defenses are tied for 22nd in the NFL in sacks.

Wide Receivers

Four of the top five fantasy wide receivers play for teams with a positive sack differential (Ochocinco, Wayne, Steve Smith of the Giants and Miles Austin). Andre Johnson’s (No. 1) Houston Texans fall into the negative category, as mentioned above.

Eight of the top 10 fantasy wide receivers play for teams with a positive sack differential (the names listed above, plus Randy Moss, Marques Colston, DeSean Jackson and Larry Fitzgerald). Vincent Jackson (No. 6) falls into the negative category (just like Philip Rivers) as mentioned above.

Defense/Special Teams

In what should come as no surprise, all of the top five fantasy defenses currently have a positive sack differential (Philadelphia, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, Denver, Minnesota).

Seven of the top 10 fantasy defenses are currently posting a positive sack differential (the five teams mentioned above, plus New England and Pittsburgh). The three teams that are not posting a PSD (Green Bay, Buffalo, San Francisco) currently rank 31st, 28th and tied for 23rd in sacks ALLOWED, respectively.

Does the Sack Differential Chart predict winners?

Why don’t we find out?

Here are the three games on the Week 8 schedule that feature the biggest discrepancy in sack differential:

San Francisco (-5) at Indianapolis (+14) (Colts are currently 13-point favorites)

Jacksonville (-10) at Tennessee (+5) (Titans are currently 3-point favorites)

Minnesota (+7) at Green Bay (-13) (Packers are currently 3-point favorites)

I’ll take the Colts, Titans and Vikings. Let’s see what happens.

Have a great weekend.

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

Jets' injured receivers expect to play

From the Associated Press:

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. — New York Jets wide receivers Jerricho Cotchery, David Clowney and Brad Smith are listed as questionable but expected to play against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

Cotchery, the team’s leading receiver, was injured in practice three weeks ago. He played in the loss at Miami on Oct. 12, then sat out a loss to Buffalo and a win at Oakland Raiders.

Smith has also missed the last two games with a quadriceps injury, while Clowney has an injured ankle. Also questionable are defensive end Shaun Ellis (knee/ankle) and linebacker Bart Scott (knee). Coach Rex Ryan said Friday he expects them all to play.

Lito Sheppard is questionable with a right quadriceps injury and isn’t expected to play.

Biggs: Maybe time off did Harris well

Maybe a little time off was just what Tommie Harris needed.

But the Chicago Bears will not find out until their defensive tackle takes the field Sunday and in the weeks to come.

Harris was benched last week for the Bears’ 45-10 blowout loss at Cincinnati and eventually the team’s efforts to couch it as an injury issue were exposed. Harris practiced all three days this week for the first time this season, and will start against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. The hope is the move will jump start Harris, who has not been a dominant force now on a consistent basis for a season and a half, since he received a $40 million, four-year contract extension.

“Greatly,’’ Harris said when asked if the time off was beneficial. “It helped a lot.”

It was coach Lovie Smith’s decision to sideline Harris in practice last week and then for the game just two weeks after the Bears had their bye week. If the move upset Harris—he has a de-escalating roster bonus in 2012 that is tied to playing time—he hasn’t shown it.

“I don’t have to show [Smith] anything,’’ Harris said. “He knows what I can do, and everybody knows what I can do. I don’t have to prove anything to anybody. It’s all about I prove it to myself, I owe it to my teammates, I owe it to this organization to get back to tip-top shape, so that’s what I’m doing.’’

As far as his chronic left knee, “I don’t even think that was an issue.’’ The team had said Harris was being rested and had been put on a new treatment program.

“We’ll just leave that alone,’’ he said.

So, now its up to playing up to his contract as the Bears (3-3) enter a stretch where they need to have some success. He understands the expectations that come with the job.

“That’s what I got paid for,’’ he said. “If you give a guy a whole bunch of money to perform or you ran a Fortune 500 company and the guys didn’t produce like he did, what are you supposed to do?’’

“You’ll see Sunday. How about that? You tell me. All right?”

Follow me at Twitter: BradBiggs

Goodell to testify again at Capitol Hill

By FREDERIC J. FROMMER, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) NFL commissioner Roger Goodell is returning to Capitol Hill next week, this time to testify about the case of two professional football players whose suspensions were blocked by the courts.

Goodell and DeMaurice Smith, head of the NFL players union, are among the witnesses scheduled before a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee next Tuesday. The Associated Press obtained a copy of the witness list.

The league had tried to suspend two Minnesota Vikings players, Kevin Williams and Pat Williams, for violating its anti-doping policy. But last month, a federal appeals court essentially allowed them to continue playing while the players’ lawsuit proceeds in state court. Both Goodell and Smith testified before another committee this week on head injuries among NFL players.

The difficult parting of Favre and the Packers

The saga continues Sunday at Lambeau Field. The storylines are drawn for this drama that’s been building for 16 months: The signature player for one team for a decade and a half returns in the uniform of its rival. Made for television, guaranteed to garner the strongest rating of the 2009 NFL season. High drama indeed.

Having spent nine years in Green Bay, I’ve commented often about both sides of the decision by the Packers to move on without quarterback Brett Favre. I’ll leave out the truly confidential parts of the story, but here’s a look behind the green and gold on some matters.

“We’ve moved on”

As we know, when Brett decided to un-retire last year to reclaim his throne in Green Bay, coach Mike McCarthy informed him, “We’ve moved on,” signaling the end of an era. All events from that point forward were the result of those three words.

In early 2008, there was radio silence between Favre and the Packers. In previous years, McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson had stopped by the Favre compound in Mississippi for a visit when they were at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Ala. Faced with indifference from his coach and general manager in the months following the 2008 NFC championship game, Brett took the hint. And coincidentally, on the same day Randy Moss re-signed with the Patriots after the Packers had attempted to sign him two years in a row (after much urging from their quarterback), Brett decided to retire.

Even though he cried at his press conference — and Packer Nation cried with him — announcing that he had “nothing left to give,” those of us who knew Brett understood this was not a decision he wanted to make (he cried following other seasons, but he wasn’t going anywhere). He was retiring from the Packers because the Packers were indifferent to his decision about playing, something he dearly wanted to continue.

The man behind the curtain

When I started with the Packers in February 1999, Ron Wolf greeted me and placed me in an office with a white-haired personnel director named Ted Thompson. I got to know Ted a bit that year. We shared an office and then worked closely for three years when he returned as general manager of the Packers. There were a few times when I was able to get Ted to open up and actually talk about things other than football players. I was pleasantly surprised to learn there was more to the person than anyone knew.

Ted is a fundamentally good person with exceptional loyalty to a few close friends. He cares about his staff and players and about the history and tradition of the Packers. He is obsessed with the task of looking under every rock to find the best football players for the team.

Like many people, though, Ted is uncomfortable being open with people when the situation may require it. Difficult conversations are just that — difficult — yet necessary to clear up ambiguities. Dealing with conflict is part of leadership and management of elite athletes with fragile egos and insecurities. Avoidance is a dangerous option when handling the raw emotion of player-management relations.

I never had a difficult conversation with Ted until our last one, when it became clear we were not going to be able to continue working together. Even in that conversation, Ted acted as if he had a plane to catch. It hurt, but I agreed with him: Although I felt, and still feel, that the Packers are a national treasure, life is short. After a nine-year run through three head coaches, three general managers and countless players, it was time to move on.

It was also time for Brett to go soon after. Ted and Brett never had a cross word with each other; they just had little to no words at all. Brett was used to a certain warm response from the general manager’s office — through the years of Ron Wolf and Mike Sherman — and he and his family recoiled at the quiet chill from Thompson’s leadership. Rather than talking about it, both sides just stayed silent rather than face the inevitable conversation.

The successor

A major reason, of course, why the Packers moved on from Brett was Aaron Rodgers. Aaron was special from the day he arrived, exuding high intelligence, natural leadership skills and a wry sense of self and humor. We were friends despite our alma mater rivalry (Cal vs. Stanford).

Brett, as I have often said, has the Wally Pipp syndrome, knowing how he got his job — replacing the starting quarterback and never giving it back. I saw it first as an agent for Matt Hasselbeck and then with Aaron. I understood Brett’s insecurity about a new potential team leader. Aaron was someone he could not embrace, but I was glad to finally see Brett warm to him in 2007.

On the field, Rodgers displayed in practice and preparation the skills he’s now showing as a starter. And in the 2006 and 2007 offseasons, with Brett at home making his decisions and sitting out the majority of the offseason, Aaron was preparing as if he was the starting quarterback. Ted and Mike certainly liked what they saw. Aaron was going to be fine.

The bitter end

Even upon his retirement, the Packers knew — or should have known — that Brett would not stay retired. They knew Brett and knew when the calendar moved closer to training camp, that he would want to play again. At the time of his retirement, as hard a conversation as it would have been, the Packers could have had an open and honest communication that they were moving on with Aaron, someone they had been grooming for three years, and any un-retirement would not be welcome. That conversation, however difficult, would have headed off the enmity to come.

Instead, there was growing distance between the parties, even with an awkward attempt to have Brett stay retired with a marketing deal with the team. Favre and the Packers retreated to their media sources to spin their stories. The Packers even uncharacteristically detailed the sequence of events that showed Brett’s vacillations, incensing Favre and his family.

Mutual mistrust ensued again with Brett’s desire to play for the Vikings and, in the view of the Packers, having extensive communication about doing so. The Packers obviously were not going to let that happen and were exasperated when the NFL dismissed tampering charges despite what they felt was strong evidence against their rival. That episode further enhanced the existing rivalry that continues Sunday.

Once set free from the Jets last winter, Brett was finally was able achieve the result he and the Vikings had pursued for more than a year. Brett now is linked at the hip to offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, a member of Mike Sherman’s staff in Green Bay that treated Brett and his family the way felt they should be treated given his accomplishments with the team.

Handling the decision

Let me say this: I agree with the decision by my former team to move to the future with Rodgers. It was not like the Packers were moving forward with a stopgap veteran quarterback. I also believe that whatever communication Brett had with the Vikings a year ago complicated matters for all sides and that Brett could have handled himself better at the end of the relationship as well.

The Packers didn’t “owe” Brett Favre anything. He had retired, was paid over $100 million by the team, and he would be a living legend free to return any time with great fanfare. At the end of the story, though, Brett deserved more from the Packers as a person, not as a player. Brett had played through personal tragedy; he had raised the profile, the profit and the asset value of the franchise; he had made the Packers a national, and international, attraction.

How could they have treated Brett better at the end? Simple, open and honest communication, and perhaps a touch of bedside manner a
nd humanity to go along with it. As easy as it sounds, it was very hard to do but needed to be done. That may have gone a long way to making sure the parting of the most famous player on one of the most storied franchises in sports was amicable.

The next chapter – but certainly not the final one — comes Sunday.

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