Dec 26, 2020; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) runs against the San Francisco 49ers in the fourth quarter at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Billy Hardiman-USA TODAY Sports

Cardinals 49ers Prediction, Why the Small Spread?

How can a team that has lost 10 of their last 11 games at home be just one-point underdogs against a 7-1 team?

You will have to ask the oddsmakers at FanDuel or Draft Kings why the San Francisco 49ers – losers of seven straight at home – are such small home underdogs against the Arizona Cardinals. True Kyler Murray is currently listed as questionable, but all signs point toward him playing. 

Arizona is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Niners and rank second in DVOA according to Football Outsiders. They would be undefeated if A.J. Green just turned around and looked for the ball last Thursday Night. If the spread sits around the one or two-point mark, taking the Cardinals seems like a no-brainer. 

Cardinals 49ers Prediction, Odds: SF +1.5, Total 46 | Matchup Report 

Why Arizona Cardinals can cover

The Cardinals have been this year’s most surprising team, just one blunder away from being undefeated. They have been consistent on both sides of the ball, rating in the Top 10 of both offensive and defensive DVOA.

Last week’s offensive performance from the 49ers was an outlier. The Bears’ defense struggled heading into that game, and Deebo Samuel ripped off a couple of incredible plays. That won’t happen this week. The 49ers were 19th in EPA per play on offense heading into Week 8. The Cardinals were third. 

The Cardinals’ defense has been spectacular this season. They are second in defensive DVOA and have allowed 7th fewest yards per play. 

Why San Francisco 49ers can cover

It’s only Week 9, but this feels like a must-win game. If the 49ers lose, they will fall to 3-5 and add another divisional loss to their record. It will be very tough to make the playoffs if they run their home losing skid to eight games. 

Back in Week 5, the 49ers held the Cardinals offense to only 17 points; their fewest points scored in a game all season. The Cardinals offense was 20th in EPA per play that week, also their lowest number the entire year. It seems like defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans has the formula to stop this offense. 

Cardinals 49ers Prediction

This spread should be closer to 4 or 4.5. The 49ers are getting way too much love after last week’s win. Take the Cardinals. 

Cardinals -1.5

Arizona San Francisco Prop Bets – Anytime TD picks


49ers Cardinals Betting Trends

49ers are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games at home.

Cardinals are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games played in November.

Cardinals are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games against San Francisco (5-1-1 ATS past 7 @ SF)

UNDER as 8-2 Arizona’s last 10 games on the road.

Cardinals are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games played in November.


Rated 5/5

Rated 5/5

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