A few weeks ago on Sunday Night Football, the Baltimore Ravens took down their white whale with a victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. Now, after dropping a pair of games to Kansas City last year, the rising Buffalo Bills are attempting to do the same.
The difference? Buffalo will have to accomplish that feat at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, where Mahomes has lost just five times in his Chiefs career. And while the Chiefs have covered just three spreads in their last 15 games, they took care of business last week against the Philadelphia Eagles and are laying less than a field goal as a mere 2.5-point favorite Sunday night.
Let’s size up one of the best matchups of the year from a betting perspective. See also Deeg’s Top 3 Anytime TD Scorer prop picks, he is on absolute fire with his documented plays which has meant huge profits for followers.
WHY THE BILLS WILL COVER
It may be their time. The Chiefs 32nd-ranked defense in terms of DVOA is in big trouble against a Buffalo offense that is averaging an AFC-best 33.5 points per game despite struggling in Week 1. This Bills team already has two 35-plus-point shutout victories, which ties a single-season NFL record despite the fact we’re only in Week 5.
On paper, Buffalo should have a huge edge.
WHY THE CHIEFS WILL COVER
The game isn’t played on paper and a lot of the intangibles favor the defending AFC champions.
Mahomes and the Chiefs have won each of their last four prime-time home games, all by at least six points. Their average margin of victory in those affairs was 13 points. Mahomes also looks and sounds inspired by the fact the Chiefs are in tough with the rest of the AFC West off to a strong start, and his team did defeat Buffalo by nine-plus points in both of their meetings last year.
BILLS CHIEFS BETTING PICK
Prior to Week 2, Mahomes had won 21 of his last 22 starts. I’d be worried if he and the Chiefs hadn’t put the train back on track last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, and I wouldn’t be excited about backing Kansas City as a heavy favorite. But with just 2.5 points on the line, I’ve gotta roll with Mahomes, Reid and Co.
Chiefs Bills Props
Kansas City Buffalo Betting Trends
Bills are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games
Chiefs are 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games.
Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Buffalo.
Bills 5-2 ATS past 7 visits to KC
Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games
Bills have played 5 straight OVERs when underdogs
Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games at home, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 conference games