The Buffalo Bills are the hottest team in the NFL when it comes to taking them against the spread. They have covered 13 of their last 16 games and are 4-1 ATS this season. The Bills lead the league in point differential and are Football Outsiders’ top-ranked DVOA team.
The Bills will head on the road to take on the Tennessee Titans. The Titans have dominated on Monday Night Football, wielding an 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 games on Monday Night.
Why Buffalo Bills can cover the spread
The Bills are the best team in the NFL right now. They steamrolled the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football last week. They went into Kansas City and beat them 38-20 in a statement game. They cover as chalk (8-2 ATS), they cover on the road (6-1 ATS), they cover in conference matchups (9-3 ATS).
The Bills defense has been the story so far. They have allowed the fewest points per game this season and just intercepted Patrick Mahomes twice. They are on pace to be the best defensive DVOA team ever recorded, according to Football Outsiders.
The Titans have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL thus far They are in the bottom ten of both offensive and defensive DVOA, and their offense is currently 17th in EPA per play. Their offense was first in EPA per play over the last two seasons. They have failed to live up to expectations.
Why Tennessee Titans can cover the spread
The Titans got back on track last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They won 37-19 and were able to force two turnovers.
The Titans’ offense still has plenty of talent. A.J Brown has yet to break out and is due for a big game. The Titans were slated as Super Bowl contenders before the season. It’s time for them to live up to those expectations.
Trend Dummy also spotted a positive MNF Titans trend, as they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Monday.
Bills Titans Betting Pick
The Bills are simply on fire right now (13-3 ATS run). They win and cover this game.
Titans Bills TD Props
Josh Allen +125 (FanDuel)
Allen has become the focal point of the Bills run game in the red zone.
Dawson Knox +175 (FanDuel)
Knox leads the team in touchdowns.
Ryan Tannehill +450 (FanDuel)
The Titans are going to have to get creative to get in the end zone. Using Tannehill’s legs in the end zone is a good plan.
Buffalo Tennessee Monday Night Betting Trends
OVER is 10-3 Tennessee’s last 13 games as the underdog
Bills are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games
Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
Bills are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against an opponent in the AFC.
Bills are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games played on a Monday.
Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing as the favorite
Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Monday.
Titans have played 5 straight OVER as regular-season home dogs
Check out the latest lines and tons of fun game props as the Buffalo Bills visit the Tennessee Titans to wrap up Week 6 picks.