The Cleveland Browns have held the underdog label with pride recently, covering four in a row as road underdogs recently. They are in the same situation as they make the trip to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers in what is easily the most intriguing matchup of the Sunday day games.
The Browns squeezed out a 14-7 win against the Minnesota Vikings last week, shutting out Minny after they scored on their first drive. The Browns defense is playing at a high level and has been one of the most impressive units through four weeks.
The Chargers are on a short week after beating the Las Vegas Raiders 28-14 on Monday Night Football. They look like a top contender in the AFC after holding the Raiders to only 213 yards of offense. The Raiders did not score a point until the third quarter. It truly was a dominating defensive performance.
Browns Chargers Odds: LAC -2.5, Total 47 at Draft Kings | Matchup Report
Why Cleveland Browns can cover the spread
The Browns’ defense has been spectacular, but the offense struggled last week, especially Baker Mayfield. Baker went 15 for 33 for only 155 yards and a sub-50 completion percentage. The Browns offense is still 9th in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
The Chargers’ offensive line had trouble handling the Raiders pass rush. Herbert was sacked twice and hit seven times. The Browns defense is third in the NFL in sacks, including 11 sacks in their last two games. Causing chaos in the pocket for Herbert will be key for the Browns. He is too good to allow him to have a clean pocket.
If you believe in trends, Cleveland is 6-1 ATS past 7 games on the road and also past 7 games vs the Chargers, per Trend Dummy’s deep database dive for Week 5.
Why L.A Chargers can cover the spread
The Chargers have lived up to their offseason expectations. Many people had the Chargers as a sleeper team in the AFC and a potential Super Bowl contender. They are 3-1 with wins over the Raiders and Chiefs. This is the start head coach Brandon Staley was looking for.
Nobody expected the Chargers defense to be this good this early. They are 9th in DVOA according to Football Outsiders and are 10th in EPA per play. At the betting window, LA has been terrific as well, going 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
Browns Chargers Betting Pick
I think this is going to be a one or two-point game. The Browns are currently 2.5 point underdogs, according to FanDuel. I am going to ride the trend and take the Browns as the road underdog.
Chargers Browns Props
Baker Mayfield OVER 219.5 Passing Yards
Baker will have a nice bounce-back day. This total is too low.
Austin Hooper OVER 26.5 Receiving Yards
The Chargers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Nick Chubb OVER 85.5 Rushing Yards
Chubb has eclipsed this total in three of his four games. The Chargers are vulnerable against the run.
Cleveland LA Chargers Betting Trends
Browns are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games against an opponent in the AFC West division, 5-13 ATS past 18.
Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
Browns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against LA Chargers.
Browns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road.
Browns lost 6 straight SU at Chargers
Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games
UNDER is 16-6 LA Chargers’ last 22 games at home.