The New York Giants have the fifth-highest cap spending on offense in the entire NFL this season. They are officially all in and will welcome the return of their best offensive player Saquon Barkley. He will make his return to the lineup after tearing his ACL in Week 2.
The Giants will host the Denver Broncos, who have a new starting quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater. Von Miller also returns from injury and will bring a boost to their front seven.
Why the Giants will cover the spread
Everyone is waiting to see how many touches Barkley will get in his first game back. There are reports he will be on a pitch count, as they want to ease him into the season. I don’t buy it. The Giants need to start getting a return on their second overall pick investment. If Barkley suits up, he will be the focal point of the offense.
On defense, the Giants will have a new starter across from James Bradburry. Adoree Jackson will make his debut for the Giants. The Giants’ defense last season finished 19th in efficiency, according to Football Outsiders.
Why the Broncos can cover the spread
Bridgewater will make his first start as a Denver Bronco on Sunday and has a great young core of wide receivers to work with this season. Courtland Sutton returns to the lineup after suffering a season-ending surgery in the offseason last year. Jerry Jeudy and Sutton provide a great one-two punch on the outside.
The Broncos’ pass defense is going to be hard to throw against all season. Denver drafted Patrick Surtain in the first round and signed Kyle Fuller this offseason. They have arguably the best cornerback room in the NFL.
Broncos Giants Betting Pick
The Broncos are my sleeper team to sneak in the AFC playoffs this season. The Giants’ defense was drastically overrated last year, and Bridgewater will bring consistency to their offense. Denver covers the spread.
Denver New York Prop Bets
Saquon Barkley Anytime TD +105
This is an automatic bet. The Giants will be feeding Barkley early and often this season. The Broncos struggled mightily against the run last year. They had the 29th ranked run defense and gave up the 22nd most rushing touchdowns to running backs.
Courtland Sutton OVER 3.5 Receptions
Sutton is going to be the number one wide receiver on this team by the season’s end. He had 28 targets in his last three games in 2019. He did not play in 2020, but he should pick up right where he left off this season.
Daniel Jones OVER .5 Interceptions
The Broncos’ secondary is just too good this season. Jones had an interception in the first four games of last year. He will struggle out the gate.
Broncos Giants Betting Trends
Broncos are 0-8 SU in their last 8 games played in September.
Denver hasn’t been a road favorite since Week 1 of 2019
Giants are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in week 1
Giants 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when playing as the underdog