Is Aaron Rodgers really worth 8.5 points at the sportsbook? Apparently so, after the Kansas City went from 1-point underdog to 7.5-point favorite after the reigning MVP went on the Covid-19 list.
The Chiefs have been very disappointing ATS lately (3-15-1 ATS in their last 19 games), including 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games at home. They failed to cover a big spread the previous week against the New York Giants.
Jordan Love is a competent backup and will keep this game close for Green Bay.
Why Green Bay Packers can cover
It has been a crazy week for the Packers organization. Rodgers went on the Covid-19 list after it was reported he is unvaccinated. This was news to everybody who had been told he was ‘immunized.’
Love, a first-round pick in 2020, will make his first career NFL start. I don’t see a massive drop-off from Rodgers to Love, who should be able to run this offense just fine. The Chiefs’ defense has been a disaster through eight weeks, rating 30th in EPA per play on defense. They have given up 25+ points in six of their eight games.
Davante Adams will be back from the Covid-19 list, and he has been a monster this season. There have been 38 wide receivers who have at least 35 targets. Adams is third out of those 58 receivers in yards per route run.
Why Kansas City Chiefs can cover
The Chiefs were able to squeak out a win on Monday Night Football against the Giants. Patrick Mahomes struggled again, throwing a key red-zone interception and almost had another one late in the game that was called back due to an offsides penalty.
The Packers’ defense has been mediocre at best. One spot the Chiefs can take advantage of the Packers is their run defense, which ranks 30th in DVOA, which opens the door for the Chiefs running backs to get more involved. It would be wise for Andy Reid to take some pressure off of Mahomes.
Packers Chiefs Prediction
Here comes a bold prediction. Love and the Packers will cover the spread and win this game outright. Packers Moneyline is sitting at +265 at FanDuel.
KC Green Bay Props
Jordan Love OVER 234.5 Passing Yards
The Chiefs have allowed 269.8 passing yards per game this season.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards
Love has a cannon of an arm. Valdes-Scantling is the Packers’ deep threat receiver. This could hit on one play.
Darrel Williams OVER 48.5 Rushing Yards
I expect Williams to be heavily involved in this game, considering how bad the Packers’ run defense is.
Green Bay Kansas City Betting Trends
Chiefs are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games against an opponent in the NFC.
Chiefs are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games at home.
Packers are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games.
Packers are 16-3 SU in their last 19 games vs AFC West division.
Packers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games including 7 straight
OVER is 6-1 past 7 meetings
Packers are 17-6 SU in their last 23 games on the road.
Packers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played in week 9.
Chiefs are 3-15-1 ATS in their last 19 games.
Chiefs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games at home.