The Cincinnati Bengals are first in the AFC North through three games. Just like everybody predicted. Oddsmakers have taken notice of the Bengals’ hot start to the season.
This is the first time since 2017 where the Bengals are home favorites of seven points or more. In their last eight home games, they are 6-2 ATS and will host the 0-3 Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jaguars have lost 18 straight games dating back to last year. They are 2-24 in their last 26 games going back to 2019. It has been an ugly stretch for this organization only has one winning season since 2008.
Why Cincinnati can cover the spread
The Bengals’ defense has been a pleasant surprise. They are 4th in defensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders and are 5th in points allowed per game. The Bengals defense terrorized Ben Roethlisberger last week. They sacked him four times and intercepted him twice in a dominant performance.
Joe Burrow was extremely efficient last week. He was 14/18 for 172 yards and three touchdowns. In the Bengals’ two wins this season, he has completed 76% of his passes. The Jaguars’ defense is 30th in completion percentage allowed.
Why Jacksonville can cover the spread
The biggest disappointment with the Jaguars so far is how Trevor Lawrence has looked. There was a ton of optimism around the first-overall pick but he has not looked the part. He leads the league in interceptions with seven and is 33rd out of 34 eligible quarterbacks in DVOA.
However, he did show some flashes against the Arizona Cardinals defense last week. The Jaguars’ defense has to be better. Even with Burrow being efficient in his two wins, there are cracks in the foundation of the Bengals’ offense. They are 30th in first downs per game and 24th in offensive DVOA.
Jaguars Bengals Betting Pick
The Bengals shouldn’t be 7.5 point favorites over any team just yet. It’s hard to back the Jaguars right now, but they will keep this game within seven points.
Bengals Jaguars Anytime TD Prop Picks
Trevor Lawrence +450
Last Thursday, we hit Sam Darnold at the same odds. Lawrence has 9 carries for 46 yards through three games and is exactly the big-bodied quarterback that can find the end zone on a quarterback sneak or zone-read run.
Laviska Shenault +300
Laviska did not hit for us on Sunday, but at +300, we have to hop back on board. He is still their best red-zone target and plays over 70% of the snaps.
Tyler Boyd +130
The Bengals are a tough team to find value on. Boyd at +130 is the best option. He has 19 targets through three games and caught a touchdown last week.
Bengals Jaguars Betting Trends
First time since 2017 Cincy is a home fave of 7 or more points.
Jaguars have lost 18 straight games
Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games at home
Bengals are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games played in week 4.
Bengals have played OVER the past 6 games as favorites