Jan 19, 2020; Kansas City, Missouri, USA;  Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) as Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) chases during the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Chiefs Titans Betting Pick, Props, Trends

The total was 57.5 midweek, which is normally a high bar to hit, but not in this game. The OVER has hit in 11 of the Tennessee Titans’ last 14 games when slated as the home underdog, including six straight.

The OVER has hit in 23 of Titans the previous 30 games when playing on a Sunday. Well, these trends have a great chance of continuing considering the Kansas City Chiefs are coming to town. 

KC’s offense continues to roll (are second in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA metric and are fifth in the NFL in points per game) but they have been terrible against the spread, covering just three of their last 17 games. They also may be missing Tyreek Hill.

Chiefs Titans Odds: Tennessee +5.5, Total 57.5 at FanDuel | Matchup Report

Why Kansas City Chiefs can cover the spread

This looks like a great matchup for the Chiefs offense. The Titans are severely banged up in the secondary. They have lost first-round rookie cornerback Caleb Farley for the season and just placed Kristian Fulton on IR. 

Scratch the injuries. The Titans’ pass defense has been bad all season. According to Football Outsiders, they are 27th in pass-defense DVOA and have allowed the ninth-most passing yards in the league. 

The Chiefs flat out dominated Washington in the second half last week. They outscored them 21-0 and proved that they are very hard to slow down when this offense is rolling. 

Why Tennessee Titans can cover the spread

The Chiefs’ defense is in the same boat as the Titans. They have allowed 29 or more points in five of their six games and rank 31st in EPA per play on defense. 

Their run defense is the biggest problem (second-worst at DVOA) and they get the best running back in football this week in Derrick Henry, who is on a ridiculous pace right now. In just his last five games, he has three 125 yard and three touchdown games. No other active player on any roster has three of those games in their entire career. Henry could go for 200+ yards in this game. 

Chiefs Titans Betting Pick

This game is going to be a shootout. I like the OVER and Titans +5.5

OVER 56.5 and Titans +5.5. 

Tennessee KC Prop Bets

Bet these props and hundreds of more pregame or in-game wagers at FanDuel!

Derrick Henry OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards

Henry has been more involved more in the passing game this year. The Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs this season. 

Ryan Tannehill OVER 250.5 Passing Yards

The Chiefs allow an average of 277 passing yards per game. Tannehill is a top ten quarterback in the NFL. 

Patrick Mahomes OVER 19.5 Rushing Yards

Mahomes has eclipsed 19.5 yards in four straight games. 

KC Chiefs Tennessee Titans Betting Trends

OVER is 11-3 Tennessee’s last 14 games as the underdog.

OVER is 23-7 Tennessee’s last 30 games played on a Sunday.

Chiefs are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games on the road.

Chiefs are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games.

Chiefs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent in the AFC.

Titans have played 6 straight OVERs as home dogs


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