The New England Patriots are the talk of the NFL right now, and rightfully so. They are winners of four in a row and will face the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football as big road favorites.
All trends point to the Patriots winning this game, as they are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games played on a Thursday and 14-3 SU in their previous 17 games played in Week 11. They have also covered 6 in a row vs the Falcons, who are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on Thursday Night Football.
Importantly, Atlanta is coming off a 45-3 beatdown. I am a massive fan of taking a decent team coming off a blowout loss, especially against a team coming off a blowout win. The Patriots will win this game, but seven points are too much. I like the Falcons to cover the spread.
Why the Atlanta Falcons will cover the spread
If I was Falcons head coach Arthur Smith, I would burn last week’s game tape and move on. It wasn’t pleasant. But if you take away last week’s game, this team has been playing some good football.
The Falcons were 3-2 in their previous five games heading into Week 10 and are still 4-5 on the year and right in the hunt for a playoff spot.
In that five-game stretch where the Falcons went 3-2, Matt Ryan was playing some of the best football of his career, as he was fifth out of all quarterbacks in EPA per play in those five games.
Why the New England Patriots will cover the spread
The Patriots have been the most impressive team in the NFL over the last four weeks, going 4-0 and outscoring their opponents 150-50. One of those wins was against the New York Jets, but big wins over the Chargers, Panthers, and Browns is impressive.
The Patriots’ offense has been great, don’t get me wrong, but the defense seems to be back to the old Bill Belichick style defenses. The Patriots’ defense is currently fifth in defensive DVOA and will be going against a Falcons offense that is 29th in offensive DVOA. This is a mismatch.
Patriots Falcons Betting Pick
There is a revenge factor to this game, as I’m sure Falcons fans have not forgotten about Super Bowl 51. It will be challenging for the Patriots to go into Atlanta and win by more than a touchdown. Take the Falcons and the points.
Thursday Night Props – Anytime TD Picks
Hunter Henry +200 at FanDuel
Henry is the Patriots top red-zone target and has touchdowns in three straight games.
Russell Gage +390 at FanDuel
With Calvin Ridley out, Russell Gage is the Falcons #1 wide receiver. At these odds, you can’t pass it up.
Kyle Pitts 2+ +1400 at FanDuel
I am taking a swing here, but I expect Pitts to get a ton of targets with Hurst out, and Patterson banged up.
Falcons Patriots Betting Trends
Pats are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games played on a Thursday.
Pats are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games played in week 11.
Pats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against Atlanta.
UNDER is 16-6 Atlanta’s last 22 games played in Week 11
Falcons are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games played on a Thursday
Falcons UNDER is 9-3 past 12 games as home dogs