If you bet on the Tennessee Titans spread every game this season, you would have made a lot of money. The Titans are 7-2 ATS on the year, tied for the second-best ATS record in the NFL.
Still, the Titans are small home favorites against the New Orleans Saints here in Week 10. Their offense has leaned into the passing attack more without Derrick Henry, and the Saints’ defense is 27th in passing yards allowed. The Saints are only 4-4 ATS, so why is this spread only 2.5 points? There is plenty of value on Titans -2.5 at FanDuel.
Saints Titans Betting Odds, Tennessee -3, Total 44 | Matchup Report
Why the New Orleans Saints will cover the spread
Even with the Saints’ loss to the Atlanta Falcons last week, they are still 5-3 and in sole possession of a wildcard spot in the NFC. The Saints can wipe out the Titans’ run game completely.
The Saints are first in rush defense DVOA and have only allowed a team to run for over 100 yards once this season. Marcus Davenport and Cameron Jordan have done a great job of locking up the inside of the Saints’ defense. It is very tough to get any yards up the middle against this team.
Why the Tennessee Titans will cover the spread
The Titans are first place in the AFC, and nobody is talking about it. They have won four games in a row, and the opponents they beat have a combined record of 21-14. They are beating some of the best teams in the league.
It looks like the Saints will be without running back Alvin Kamara in this game, which would completely deflate their offense. He is their best weapon, and without him, I have a hard time seeing the Saints putting many points on the board.
Trevor Siemian is not a threat to the Titans’ defense. He is 20th out of 26 Quarterbacks in EPA per play over the last two weeks and does not have the talent at wide receiver to make up for his weaknesses.
Saints Titans Betting Pick
The Saints will be without their top running back and top quarterback. This is a team that has little to no firepower left on offense. The Titans’ defense has been playing very well as of late, sitting at 6th in EPA per play over their four-game win streak. Take the Titans -2.5.
Titans Saints Betting Trends
Saints are 14-2 SU in their last 16 Sunday road games
Saints are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games on the road.
Saints are 23-6-2 ATS in their last 31 games when playing as the underdog.
Titans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.