The New York Giants have been playing better, 2-1 in their past three with their loss a winnable game against the Chiefs. Defense has improved, as they sit fourth in EPA per play over the last four weeks and they get a struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense that is only averaging 23 points over their last two games.
Some trends point to this 10.5 point spread being far too high. The Giants are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games on the road (21-6 ATS past 27), while the Buccaneers are 3-7 ATS in their previous 10 games on Monday Night Football.
I like the Giants to keep this one close and cover the current 11.5-point spread over at FanDuel.
Giants Buccaneers Betting Pick, Odds: TB -11.5, Total 49.5 | Matchup Report
Why the New York Giants will cover the spread
The Giants are coming off a bye, and they know that this game is crucial if they want to get back into the NFC wild-card hunt. Since losing 38-11 to the Rams in Week 6, the Giants have outscored their opponents by 26 points and got wins over two good teams in the Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders.
The Giants have historically played the Bucs very well. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at Tampa and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. They are catching them at the exact right time, as their offense has not looked the same without Antonio Brown, who will miss his fourth straight game.
Why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will cover the spread
The Bucs offense will get a much-needed boost this weekend, as Robert Gronkowski is on track to play. Tom Brady looked flustered without Gronk or Brown on the field last week, so getting one of them back is enormous.
Watch out for the Bucs run game in this one. The Giants have the 30th ranked DVOA run defense, so I expect a heavy dose of Leonard Fournette in this game, who is quietly having a good season.
Giants Buccaneers Betting Pick
The Giants aren’t the same team we saw through the first six weeks. They are starting to get healthy on offense, with Kadarius Toney and Saquon Barkley expected to start. They will keep this one close.
Bucs Giants Monday Night Betting Trends
Giants are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games on the road (21-6 ATS past 27)
Giants are 3-11 SU in their last 14 games played on a Monday.
Giants are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games against Tampa Bay.
Past 6 meetings all played OVER the total
Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at Tampa
Giants are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games played in Week 11.
Bucs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home.
Bucs are 20-5-2 ATS in their last 27 games played in Week 11.
Bucs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played on a Monday.