The New York Jets are coming off their biggest win in two years and are again double-digit underdogs Thursday night in Indy.
And buyer beware on the Colts – the Jets have won outright in two of their last three games as a double-digit dog. Believe in the Jets to do it again? the moneyline was sitting at +420 at FanDuel as of Tuesday.
Tread cautiously, however. Yes, Mike White and the Jets were exciting last week, but they are still 2-10 ATS in their previous 12 games on the road. Add that to a 2-8 SU record in their last 10 games on Thursday Night Football; this could be a spot where bettors get way too excited betting on the trending underdog. The Indianapolis Colts are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games on Thursday Night.
Why New York Jets can cover
Last week was the most excited Jets fans have been in years. QB Mike White led the Jets to a 34-31 victory over a 5-2 Cincinnati Bengals team.
White was the star of the show. He threw for over 400 yards, the first Jets quarterback to do so since 2000. He had the fourth-best EPA per play performance of Week 8 out of any quarterback in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts, on the other hand, are coming off a crushing loss to the Tennessee Titans. Quarterback Carson Wentz had two horrible turnovers that ultimately led to their defeat in overtime.
The Jets should follow a similar offensive game plan. They threw 45 times and only had 27 rushing attempts. The Colts are first in run defense DVOA but are 20th in pass defense DVOA.
Why Indianapolis Colts can cover
The Colts did lose. However, there were some positives to take away from this game. The offense consistently moved the ball, and wide receiver Michael Pittman is starting to look like a bonafide No. 1 wideout.
White is going into his second career start. Yes, he played very well, but there is a reason he was on the practice squad for years. The Colts defense is 5th in DVOA overall and should feast on a weak Jets offensive line.
Look for Wentz to have a bounce-back game. The Jets defense is 26th in EPA per play on drop backs. I expect Frank Reich to come in with a game plan to get the ball out early and take advantage of the Jets’ cornerbacks.
Jets Colts Betting Pick
The 10.5 points spread is tricky, but I trust the Colts to cover. The Jets will fall back down to earth on Thursday Night Football.
Indianapolis NY Jets Props – Anytime TD picks
Jamison Crowder +225 (DraftKings)
With Corey Davis out of the lineup, Crowder steps in as the Jets’ top receiver. The Colts have allowed the most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season.
Nyheim Hines +240 (FanDuel)
Hines is starting to get more red zone touches. The Jets have allowed the most touchdowns to opposing running backs this season.
Jack Doyle +400 (DraftKings)
Doyle is third on the Colts in red zone targets. At +400, he provides the best value in this game.
Colts Jets Betting Trends
Jets have won outright 2 of past 3 games as double-digit dogs.
Jets are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games on the road
Jets are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played on a Thursday.
Colts have played 8 straight UNDERs as double-digit favorites dating to 2009
Colts are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games played on a Thursday.