Tom Brady will play his first game in Los Angeles against a Rams team that has struggled to cover as home as underdogs. They are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games as home underdogs and are currently sitting as 1.5 point underdogs, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the third-best point differential through two weeks, outscoring their opponents by 25 points. Tom Brady is now the runner-up favorite for MVP behind only Patrick Mahomes and is arguably playing the best football of his career at 44-years old.
The Rams are off to a 2-0 start after squeaking out a 27-24 win against the Indianapolis Colts. Matthew Stafford continues to light up the stat sheet, throwing for 278 yards and two touchdowns. He and Sean McVay have been as advertised together. This has all the makings of the NFC Championship game.
Why Tampa Bay can cover the spread
Brady lit up the Falcons secondary last week. He threw for 276 yards and five touchdowns with zero interceptions. Brady and Gronk continue to take the league by storm connecting for another two touchdowns.
The Bucs pass defense has been better than the stats show. They intercepted Matt Ryan three times last week and held him to only 6.5 yards per attempt. Carlton Davis will be following Cooper Kupp in this game, the Rams’ best offensive weapon. Davis is PFFs 7th ranked cornerback through two weeks.
Why L.A Rams can cover the spread
The Rams offense has come out guns blazing to start the season. According to Football Outsiders, they are 5th in offensive DVOA, and their offense looks much more dynamic with Stafford under center than with Jared Goff.
The Rams defense is in perfect shape to shut down this Buccaneers’ high-flying offense. The Rams are tied for 5th in the NFL in sacks, and the Buccaneers’ offensive line struggled to keep Brady upright last week. He was sacked three times by a very underwhelming Falcons pass rush.
Buccaneers Rams Betting Pick
The Rams are going to win this football game. According to Football Outsiders, the Rams have the 4th ranked pass defense, and the Buccaneers run game has been non-existent. The Rams cover the spread and win this game outright.
Bucs Rams Props
Robert Woods OVER 5.5 Receptions
With Carlton Davis following Kupp around, this leaves Woods with a great matchup. The Bucs’ secondary gets razor thin after Davis.
Leonard Fournette UNDER 45.5 Rushing Yards
Fournette only has 84 rushing yards this season. The Rams held Johnathan Taylor to only 3.4 yards per carry last week.
Matthew Stafford OVER 2.5 Passing Touchdowns
The Buccaneers are hard to run against. The passing game will have to carry this team. The Bucs have already allowed five passing touchdowns through two weeks.
Tampa Bay LA Rams Betting Trends
Rams 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
Rams 0-7-1 ATS past 8 as home underdogs, haven’t won in this situation since 2016
Bucs have won 8 straight road games
OVER is 21-6 Tampa Bay’s last 27 games against NFC teams
Bucs are 2-10 SU, 3- ATS in their last 12 games played in Week 3.