The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been road warriors in the brief Tom Brady Era, rolling up a 10-2 mark in their last 12 games. With Handsome Tom playing possibly the best football of his career (11 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last four games), its not a surprise Tampa is favored by a TD on a short week visiting the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football (even with several key injuries).
The Eagles, 5-0 on Thursdays under Doug Pederson from 2016-2020 and 14-5 SU dating back almost two decades. New Head Coach Nick Sirianni will look to continue his success, a week after the Eagles squeezed out an ugly win against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers had the number one EPA per play performance on defense, while the Eagles had the second-ranked performance. It was a sloppy defensive battle nonetheless.
Why Tampa Bay Bucs can cover the spread
The Bucs are rolling right now. They have won eight of their last nine regular-season games dating back to last year. According to Football Outsiders, their offense is second in DVOA and put up 45 points last week against a tough Miami Dolphins secondary.
The Bucs have to take advantage of the interior of the Eagles offensive line. The Eagles are starting two backup offensive guards, and center Jason Kelce struggles against larger defensive tackles. This could be a big Veta Vea game.
Trend watchers take note of the multiple OVER streaks on Tampa (list below the TNF Prop Picks).
Why Philadelphia Eagles can cover the spread
Yes, the Eagles got the win, but they did not play very well against the Panthers. They only had five first downs in the first half and the offense struggled mightily until the fourth quarter. You do have to give the team credit for battling back and get the season-saving win.
The Buccaneers are severely banged up in the secondary. They will be without their top two starting cornerbacks in Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis, and it looks like they will be without their best safety in Antoine Winfield Jr. The Eagles have been a pass-happy team this season. Their offensive philosophy could play in their favor.
Philly usually wins on this short week (14-5 SU past 19 games) and they have an odd 8-3 ATS in their past 11 Week 6 matchups.
Buccaneers Eagles Betting Pick
This is a tough matchup for the Eagles. Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott put up 40+ points against this defense. The better quarterbacks in the league seem to have this defense figured out. Buccaneers cover.
Tampa Philly Anytime TD Picks
Miles Sanders +200 (FanDuel)
Sanders at +200 is straight-up disrespectful. He is their starting running back and played 76% of the snaps last week.
Quez Watkins +300 (DraftKings)
Watkins is the fastest player on the field. He is going to beat the Bucs defense deep at least once in this game.
Cameron Brate +320 (FanDuel)
With Gronkowski out, Brate at +320 is too juicy to pass up. The Bucs are a hard team to find value on.
Bucs Eagles Betting Trends
OVER is 5-1 past 6 meetings of TB and Philly
OVER is 22-6 past 28 Tampa games within NFC
OVER is 24-9 Tampa Bay’s last 33 games played in October.
OVER is 6-1 past 7 Bucs games in Week 6
OVER is 16-6 past 22 TB games as favorites
Bucs are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games on the road
Bucs are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games played in October.
Bucs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Thursday.
UNDER is 13-4 past 17 Philly home games
UNDER is 10-4 past 14 Eagles games within NFC
Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 6.
Eagles are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games played on a Thursday including 6 straight SU (5-1 ATS)