Jan 3, 2021; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots running back Sony Michel (26) rushes against New York Jets free safety Marcus Maye (20) during the first quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Week 2 NFL Trends

Betting on Week 2 matches often sees a reversal of the fortunes we observed in the opening week of the season. Some teams are not as bad as they looked and others are not nearly as good as the score indicates either.

For Week 2, that gives us pause on New Orleans and Philadelphia who pulled off surprise routs. We also doubt the Packers are as bad as they looked against the Saints. So check out the Week 2 NFL betting trends and remember to watch for the opposite action because oddsmakers are watching as well.

Thursday Night

NY Giants +3 @ Washington, Total 41 at FanDuel | Matchup Report

Some people (The Backwards Oracle included) believe this will be a Washington rout. And while the Giants are regular losers as underdogs (4-19 SU past 23) they are also regular winners against the spread (18-5 ATS in those same 23 games).

Giants are 4-19 SU in their last 23 games when playing as the underdog.

Washington 4-18 SU in their last 22 games at home.

Giants are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against Washington.

Giants are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games on the road.

Giants are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games at Washington

Giants are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against an opponent in the NFC East

Giants are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games played in September.

Giants are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played in week 2.

Giants have played UNDER 7 straight years in Week 2 – why? No idea.

Giants have played UNDER past 7 games as underdogs

Giants are 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Thursday

Washington 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played in September.

Washington 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played in week 2.

Washington OVER is 8-2 Washington’s last 10 games played on a Thursday.

Washington 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing as the favourite

Cincinnati @ Chicago -3, Total 45 at FanDuel | Matchup Report

Line has already moved from -5-5 to -3 as of midweek.

Bears are 10-2 SU in their last 12 divisional games

Bears are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games played in September.

Bengals are 1-18-1 SU in their last 20 road games.

Bengals 12-5 SU in their last 17 games against an opponent in the NFC North

UNDER is 14-5 Chicago’s last 19 games at home.

Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in Week 2.

Bears 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as the favorite

Buffalo @ Miami +3.5, Total 48 at Draft Kings | Matchup Report

Dolphins 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games at home

Dolphins are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.

Bills 20-3 SU in their last 23 games as the favorite

Bills are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games

OVER is 5-0 past 5 meetings

Bills are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games against Miami

OVER is 7-2 Buffalo’s last 9 games on the road.

OVER is 7-3 Buffalo’s last 10 divisional games

Bills 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS past 9 as road favorites

Dolphins 8-2 ATS past 10 as home dogs and 17-5 ATS past 22 overall as underdogs

Dolphins 9-3 ATS in their last 12 divisional games

Houston @ Cleveland -12.5, Total 48 at FanDuel | Matchup Report

This will be the biggest point spread in the history of the reborn Cleveland Browns. Previous high was -11.5 Dec. 30, 2007 at home to the 49ers.

UNDER is 9-2 past 11 meetings of these teams

Texans covered 6 straight vs Browns

Texans have played 6 straight Week 2 UNDERs

Texans 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing as the underdog

Texans failed to cover past 4 as double-digit underdogs

New England @ New York Jets +5.5, Total 42.5 at Draft Kings | Matchup Report

Jets have lost 10 straight September games and are 1-9 ATS in the process.

Patriots are 19-3 SU in their last 22 games against NY Jets

Patriots just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as the favourite.

Jets are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games against an opponent in the AFC East division

Jets are 7-3 ATS past 10 as home underdog

Denver @ Jacksonville +6, Total 45.5 | Matchup report

Since 2011, Jaguars are 1-17 SU as home dogs of 6 or more points and just 4-14 ATS.

Jaguars have lost 16 in a row SU and 14 in a row SU as underdogs.

UNDER is 9-2 Denver’s last 11 games as the favorite.

Denver is 17-4 SU in their last 21 games played in Week 2.

Jaguars 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Denver.

Denver has played 5 straight UNDERs as road chalk

San Francisco @ Philadelphia +3, Total 50 | Matchup Report

Eagles are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games played in Week 2.

Eagles are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against San Francisco.

49ers 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games when playing as the favorite

49ers are 6-1 SU past 7 as road favorites (OVER is 5-1-1 in those games)

Eagles have covered 5 straight as home underdogs

UNDER is 12-3 Philadelphia’s last 15 games at home

LA Rams @ Indianapolis +3.5, Total 48 | Matchup Report

A weird OVER trend, as the Rams are 14-2 in their last 16 games vs AFC South teams. Figure that out if you can. Another weird totals trend, this tome to the UNDER – 17-4 Rams’ last 21 games as the favorite. Meanwhile Indy does not bite very hard as a dog, winning just five times in the last 26 tries when catching points.

Colts are 5-21 SU in their last 26 games as underdog, including eight straight

Rams 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games played in September.

Las Vegas @ Pittsburgh -6, Total 47 | Matchup Report

OVER is 11-2 Las Vegas’ last 13 conference games

OVER is 9-2 Las Vegas’ last 11 games as the underdog.

The total has gone OVER in 14 of Las Vegas’ last 17 games

Raiders 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against Pittsburgh.

New Orleans @ Carolina +3, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

Saints 12-1 SU in their last 13 Sunday road games

Saints 10-1 SU in their last 11 divisional games

Saints 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games.

OVER is 11-3 past 14 meetings

Saints 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games on the road.

Saints are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games played in Week 2.

Panthers 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing as the underdog.

Tennessee at Seattle -6.5, Total 54 | Matchup Report

OVER is 11-1 Tennessee’s last 12 Sunday road games

Titans 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Seattle.

Pat 6 meetings between these teams in Seattle all played UNDER

Seahawks 26-4 SU past 30 September home games as chalk

Sunday Night – Kansas City @ Baltimore +3.5, Total 54.5 at Fanduel | Matchup Report

Chiefs have won 15 straight September games SU(12-3 ATS)

Chiefs 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games

Chiefs  0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games

Chiefs 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at Baltimore

Chiefs 20-2 SU in their last 22 games against an opponent in the AFC

Ravens 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing as the underdog.

Monday Night Football Trends – Detroit vs Green Bay -11.5, Total 48 – Bet at FanDuel

Packers are 1-6 ATS as double-digit favorites since 2015 and played 8 straight UNDERs when DD chalk. Detroit has played 6 straight UNERS as double-digit dogs.

Packers 11-1 SU in their last 12 divisional games while the Lions are 1-11 SU in the NFC North.

Packers 27-3 SU in their last 30 games when playing at home against Detroit.

Lions 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in September.

Lions 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played on a Monday.

OVER is 7-2 Detroit’s last 9 games as the underdog

OVER is 22-8 Green Bay’s last 30 games played in September

Packers 7-1 SU in their last 8 games played on a Monday.

 

Archived Week 2 NFL Betting Trends piece from Sept. 16, 2020

If you ignored Week 1 betting trends, you ignored a chance to win plenty of wagers, so let’s not make the same mistake twice. Week 2 betting trends see even more steaks and team tendencies, including a few that favor Cleveland on Thursday night.

Among the highlights you will find below:

  • a 3-26 SU run for Detroit in Green Bay
  • the Bears have not covered a home spread against the Giants since 1991
  • the biggest home underdog number for the Chargers since John Elway was in town in 1998
  • the foolishness of betting against the Patriots as an early-season underdog.

(Trends are regular-season and odds are opening numbers from FanDuel and Draft Kings).

Thursday Night Football Matchup

Editor Note: Check out the TNF Betting trends piece posted earlier.

Detroit +6 at Green Bay Total 47.5

It’s one of the most lopsided streaks in pro sports history. In 29 seasons, the Lions have won just three times in Green Bay. The Lions own a 6-0 ATS mark recently against the Packers, but all their other trends are negative. Can they rebound from a bad Week 1 loss or is their season kaput already?

Green Bay is 26-3 SU past 29 at home to Detroit.

Detroit is 0-11 SU past 11 games as underdog and 1-13 SU past 14 games.

Detroit is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games.

Detroit 6-0 ATS past 6 vs GB

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Green Bay’s last 11 games against NFC North rivals

NY Giants +5.5 at Chicago Total 43

The last time the Giants failed to cover the spread at Chicago, Jeff Hostetler and Jim Harbaugh were battling it out Sept 15, 1991. Since then, the Giants are 6-0 ATS here. Despite a terrible overall SU trend as an underdog, the Giants have a bunch of trends that point to them continuing this pattern.

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago’s last 11 games at home.

NY Giants are 3-19 SU past 22 games as the underdog.

NY Giants are 5-1 ATS past 6 games vs Chicago.

NY Giants are 12-3 ATS past 15 road games.

The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Giants’ last 10 games on the road.

NY Giants are 0-8 ATS past 8 games in Week 2.

NY Giants are 1-13 SU past 14 games as the underdog.

NY Giants are 9-2 ATS past 11 Sunday road games.

Giants 10-2 ATS as road underdog since start of 2018 season, just 3-9 SU

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago’s last 11 games at home.

Chicago is 1-6 ATS past 7 games as the favorite.

Jacksonville +12 at Tennessee Total 43

Editor Note: This game has been bet down to -7.5 as of Friday, so the Jags re no longer double-digit road dogs and the Titans not DD home faves.

The Jaguars are probably not for real and this game will prove it. The Jags have lost 7 in a row as double-digit road dogs while not packing much bite against the spread (1-5-1 ATS).  Meanwhile, the Titans have been double-digit home chalk just three times since 2009, and failed to cover all three.

Jacksonville is 2-10 SU past 12 games at Tennessee.

Atlanta +6 at Dallas Total 52

Not much to see here between two teams that underachieved last week. The Falcons own a weird Week 2 trend and there is a mild lean to the OVER historically when these teams play in Dallas.

Atlanta are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 2.

The total is 6-1 favoring the OVER past seven meetings in Dallas.

San Francisco -7 at New York Jets Total 43.5

Two more Week 1 losers clash here, with the 49ers laying a TD again. That didn’t work very well last week at home to Arizona. The Jets are rarely home dogs this big, in fact just 11 times since 2007. They won once in those 11 games, but are 6-4-1 ATS. The Niners have been road chalk of 7 or more points just four times since Dec. 2012 and failed to cover all four.

LA Rams -1 at Philadelphia Total 46

LA got a surprise win, the Eagles absorbed a shocking loss. The Eagles have historically thrashed the Rams, while the Rams enjoy several dominant ATS as a road team and against conference rivals. Rams bettors will like this stat – Philly is just 3-11 ATS in 14 games since 2011 as home underdogs.

Philadelphia is 12-1-1 ATS past 14 games vs LA Rams including 6 straight at home

LA Rams are 8-2 ATS past 10 road games.

LA Rams are 13-3-1 ATS past 17 games vs NFC teams.

The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Philadelphia’s last 22 games at home.

Philadelphia is 2-9 ATS past 11 games in Week 2.

Carolina +8 at Tampa Bay Total 48.5

Carolina has been terrible as an underdog, but has been a good bet at Tampa Bay. The biggest betting trend here is the OVER, where Tampa has played 11 in a row vs NFC foes.

The total has gone OVER in 11 of Tampa Bay’s last 11 games against an opponent in the NFC.

Carolina is 1-10 SU past 11 Sunday games.

Carolina is 5-1 ATS past 6 games at Tampa Bay.

Carolina lost 8 straight and 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing as the underdog.

Tampa Bay is 0-5-2 ATS past 7 home games.

Tampa Bay is 10-3 ATS past 13 games in Week 2.

Denver +6 at Pittsburgh Total 43

There are so many UNDER trends here that this game MUST be destined to play OVER. The Broncos enjoy positive Week 2 SU trends, solid underdog trends but terrible road trends. But check out the decisive history around UNDERs.

The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Pittsburgh’s last 15 games vs conference foes.

Denver is 13-2 SU in their last 15 games played in Week 2.

The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Denver’s last 26 games.

Denver is 6-20 SU past 26 road games.

Denver are 0-6 SU in their last 6 games played in September.

OVER is 6-1 past seven meetings played in Pittsburgh.

UNDER is 17-4 in Denver’s last 21 vs AFC teams.

Denver is 12-5 ATS past 17 games as underdog.

UNDER is 17-5 in Denver’s last 22 as underdog.

UNDER is 17-5 in Pittsburgh’s last 22 vs AFC teams.

UNDER is 12-3 in Pittsburgh’s last 15 Week 2 games.

UNDER is 9-3 in Pittsburgh’s last 12 games as favorite.

Minnesota +3 at Indianapolis Total 47.5

A lot of negative trends for a Vikings team that got off to negative start against Green Bay. The Vikes don’t win in Indianapolis and usually don’t cover as underdogs either.

Indianapolis is 11-3 SU past 14 home games.

Indianapolis is 13-4 SU past 17 games NFC North teams.

The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Minnesota’s last 17 games played in Week 2.

Vikes lost 6 in a row SU at Indy

Minnesota is 2-9 SU (3-8 ATS) past 11 games as underdog.

Buffalo -5.5 at Miami Total 42

So you want to trust the Bills to cover 5.5 points on the road? They have been in this position (road chalk of 5.5 points or more) just twice in 12 seasons (most recently last year when they won here 37-20) at -7. If you don’t trust the Bills, maybe its their recent UNDER tendency that attracts you.

The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Buffalo’s last 21 games.

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Buffalo’s last 10 games against Miami.

The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Buffalo’s last 21 games on the road.

Washington +6.5 at Arizona Total 46.5

Two surprise Week 1 winners, can Washington do it twice in a row? Historically they have dominated the Cardinals but they are the second-best team in this matchup (by a long way).

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Arizona’s last 11 games played in September.

Washington is 10-2 SU in their last 12 games against Arizona

KC -8.5 at LA Chargers Total 49.5

This is the biggest Chargers home underdog number since they were +13.5 against Denver Nov. 28, 1998. John Elway threw four TD passes and three INTs, but out-duelled fellow Hall of Famer Craig Whelihan, who threw 53 times and was picked off five times) Elway fumbled on the first play, Junior Seau recovered but the Broncos won anyway. I know the Chiefs are talented and defending champions, but every point spread looks easy for them and all the trends favor them to cover this big road number.

LA Chargers are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games against Kansas City.

The total has gone OVER in 11 of LA Chargers’ last 14 games played in Week 2.

Kansas City is 12-0 SU 12 games played in September.

Kansas City is 15-1 SU past 16 games vs AFC West rivals.

Kansas City is 11-1 ATS past 12 games.

Kansas City is 10-3 ATS past 13 vs LA Chargers.

Kansas City is 6-0 and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games at LA Chargers.

Kansas City is 25-9 ATS past 34 games vs AFC teams.

LA Chargers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home.

Kansas City is 19-4 ATS past 23 games vs AFC West rivals.

Chargers 8-24 SU past 5+ seasons within the division

Baltimore -6.5 at Houston Total 52.5

If you think 6.5 points is too much for the Ravens on the road against a good team, take heed: they have been road chalk of 6.5 pts or more five times since 2017 and covered every time. They also enjoy plenty of current positive trends to win and cover, while the Texans enjoy only a lame Week 2 SU trend.

Houston is 10-2 SU past 12 games played in Week 2.

Houston is 2-9 SU past 11 games vs Baltimore.

Baltimore has won 11 straight Sunday games.

Baltimore is 13-1 SU past 14 games.

Baltimore is 9-1-1 ATS past 11 road games.

New England +4 at Seattle Total 45

Mess with the Patriots as an underdog at your own wallet-draining peril. For two decades, New England has almost always been favored and in those rare cases where they get points, they take great offence to it and win anyway.

Get this – Pats have been regular-season road dog just 13 times since 2010 and paid off at 10-3 ATS. And get this – go back 20 seasons and the Pats have been a September underdog just 11 times since 2001. Oh and they also rewarded their backers with a 9-1-1 ATS run.

The total has gone OVER in 17 of Seattle’s last 21 vs AFC East teams.

Past five meetings all played OVER the total.

New England is 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games when playing as the underdog.

Since 1998, the Seahawks 20-8-1 ATS as home chalk in September

Pats have been a dog in September just 11 times since 2001 (9-1-1 ATS)

Monday Night Football Betting Trends

New Orleans -6 at Las Vegas Total 51.5

Monday Night Football trends are seldom as one-sided as this Week 2 matchup. Las Vegas has been tough lately as an underdog and done very well on MNF, but check out the Saints trends.

Saints won 11 straight SU vs AFC teams

New Orleans is 12-4 ATS papst 16 games.

New Orleans is 7-2 ATS past 9 against Las Vegas.

New Orleans is 7-0 ATS past 7 road games (14-3 ATS past 17).

New Orleans is 1-7 ATS past 8 Week 2 games.

Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS past 6 Monday Night games.

Vegas 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS past 8 as home dogs

Week 2 NFL Trends