Archived article follows below – for current season Week 5 OVER UNDER picks, click here.
This NFL season, with sports betting expected to be a more common and accepted practice, we’re making a point to look beyond point spreads and analyze often-neglected totals. As part of that approach, we’re offering up our favorite bet over and favorite under each week.
Over and Under Best Bets
Over of the week: Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Atlanta and Pittsburgh have gone over the total in six of their eight combined games this season, which is why the number is so high for their Week 5 meeting at Heinz Field.
But this is one of those cases in which Vegas just can’t move the total high enough.
Both Atlanta and Pittsburgh are allowing 29 or more points per game, and both are averaging at least 25 points on offense. The depleted Atlanta defense surrendered 80 points to the Saints and Bengals, so the Steelers should be good for at least 30 in a bounce-back to form after a blip against the Baltimore Ravens.
Pittsburgh is much more likely to perform the way it did on offense against the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (a combined 67 points) than it did against Baltimore, especially considering the yo-yo nature of this weird league.
Meanwhile, the Steelers defense has surrendered at least 26 points in three straight games, while the Falcons have scored at least 31 in their last three outings. This should be a shootout with a combined point total well above 60.
Predicted score: Steelers 37, Falcons 31
Under of the week: Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are due for a dud. It happens to every offense, and there were indications it was happening to red-hot Kansas City at times Monday night in Denver. Now they’re back at home, but they’re tired after a dramatic prime-time comeback and facing the league’s most talented defense.
That Jacksonville D has surrendered a league-low 14.0 points per game this season. And while Kansas City’s No. 1-rated scoring offense will be a challenge, let’s remember they had just 13 points in the fourth quarter against the Broncos.
The Jags very well could explode against a tired and banged-up defense, but this is still a road game in a tough, loud atmosphere and Jacksonville still lacks consistency on offense.
I can’t see this one pushing 50. It might have trouble getting to 40.
Predicted score: Jaguars 20, Chiefs 17
Good luck, we’re all counting on you.
Last week: 1-1
2018 season: 3-5