Breaking down odds to win AFC South in 20210
The Jaguars are a stretch and the Texans are a long shot. The AFC South betting situation in 2021 should come down to injury recoveries in Tennessee and Indianapolis. The Titans open the season as favorites but the Colts are a viable pick.
Tennessee Titans -110
The Titans are 18-8 since naming Ryan Tannehill starter. During that 26 game stretch, the Titans offense has finished first in EPA per play in the entire NFL. This offense just added one of the best wide receivers in the league in Julio Jones.
Losing Arthur Smith could be a huge problem. He was the architect behind the Titans’ offense over the last two seasons, and he now is the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. The Titans’ defense is very thin in the secondary and could have issues stopping the pass. They finished 25th in DVOA against deep passes last season and did little to fix that problem.
Indianapolis Colts +140
Quarterback Carson Wentz was just activated off the Covid-19 list and missed time due to surgery to repair a broken foot. Wentz also stated that he is currently not vaccinated, which could cause problems for the Colts down the road.
The Colts season will come down to Wentz getting back to form. He was arguably the worst quarterback in the league last year but was above average from 2017-2019. Frank Reich was his offensive coordinator in 2017 when Wentz finished first in the NFL in QBR.
Jacksonville Jaguars +600
Since 2011, the Jacksonville Jaguars are 44-116. A new era of Jaguars football begins as the golden boy Trevor Lawrence takes the reigns at quarterback. Urban Meyer will make his NFL debut this season and will have to navigate a depleted roster.
From top to bottom, the Jaguars have arguably the worst roster in the NFL. Take away Trevor Lawrence, and there is very little to be excited about.
Houston Texans +2300
The Texans have the worst odds to win their division, according to FanDuel. There is not much to say about the 2021 Houston Texans.
Tyrod Taylor will start at quarterback Week 1, as the Deshaun Watson saga continues. I can’t recall a worse situation a first-year head coach has been thrown into other than what Dave Culley will have to deal with this year.
AFC South Best Bet
Don’t overthink this one. Take the Titans at -110 and watch for the latest odds and interesting AFC South prop bets at FanDuel (while earning a huge welcome bonus bet!)
AFC betting odds for 2020 archived article by Brad Gagnon
Betting on who will win the AFC South has been a tricky proposition in recent years, when the favored teams flounder and the upstart teams surge. With that in mind, let’s break down divisional odds in the oft-unpredictable AFC South at FanDuel Sportsbook and Draft Kings, both premier NFL betting partners.
Indianapolis Colts (+120)
The Colts were just 7-9 despite lots of talent last year, but they’ve gently upgraded from Jacoby Brissett to Philip Rivers at quarterback and they added second-team All-Pro defensive lineman DeForest Buckner to the defensive front. In most worlds, that wouldn’t be enough to become a division favorite after posting a losing record, but the AFC South isn’t your typical NFL division. Indy will almost certainly be in the fray.
Tennessee Titans (+160)
Meanwhile, Tennessee is perennially in said fray. They’ve gone 9-7 in four consecutive seasons and are back with the same core that took them to the AFC championship game on a surprise run in 2019. The problem is that felt like a bit of an aberration for a team that hasn’t looked like a real Super Bowl threat in years. Do you trust that breakout quarterback-running back duo Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry can sustain that craziness from last December and January? It’s a fair question.