Bengals vs Colts Pick, Odds, Analysis

True, the Cincinnati Bengals are 1-8 SU in their last nine games at Indianapolis and true again that the Indianapolis Colts have covered the spread eight straight seasons before their bye week. 

While the Bengals have struggled against the Colts in the past, and they are coming off a blowout loss to the Ravens, Indy is also coming off a disappointing loss against the Browns. And their offense seems to have some major issues. 

UPSET ALERT: This is a perfect matchup for the Bengals. I like the Bengals to cover the spread, AND win outright in my upset pick of the week. 

Bengals Colts Odds: Colts -8 Total 46.5 at BetRivers | Matchup Report 

The Bengals had a wake-up call last week. Joe Burrow got his first win as a pro in Week 4, and then hit a wall against the Ravens. He had his worst game as a pro, and was sacked seven times. 

The Bengals defense needs to step up and take some pressure off Burrow, and this looks like a good week to do so. The Bengals defense has actually been solid through five weeks, especially their pass defense. The Bengals held Lamar Jackson to a passer rating of 71.9 last week, and currently own the 9th best pass defense in the NFL. 

The Colts own the 6th worst run offense in the NFL, which is the Bengals biggest weakness on defense. If the Bengals can force the Colts offense to become pass reliant, I like their chances.  And while Cincy hasn’t won on the road in 15 tries, they are moneymakers against the spread (10-4 ATS in the latest 14 road efforts).

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Philip Rivers has struggled this season to say the least. He had 2 INTs last week, one of them being a pick six. Colts fans are starting to second guess the decision to sign him to a $25 million dollar contract. 

The Colts simply need to establish a run game in this one. The Bengals gave up 161 yards on the ground last week, which has been a trend for them all season. 

Indy needs to give rookie Jonathan Taylor more touches. He is their only RB who is averaging 4 yards per carry, and is their best chance at improving their 20th ranked run offense. 

With their bye week in Week 7, handicappers have been profiting from the Colts magic in this situation, as they are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS the past eight seasons.

Bengals vs Colts pick

I know the upset pick is bold, but this is simply a great matchup for the Bengals. Head Coach Zac Taylor is an innovative offensive coach who will go back to the quick passing game that worked earlier in the season. Burrow is 4-1 against the spread this year, and I like for that trend to continue.