Oct 25, 2020; Nashville, Tennessee, USA;  Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (7) throws a pass against the Tennessee Titans during the second half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

Double Digit Road Favorites: Bet Home Dog?

New England will close as double-digit road favorites in the Monday Nighter and while Pittsburgh continued its terrible run of play in this role, the Patriots have a much better history with bettors.

While Pittsburgh slipped to 1-13 ATS in 14 games as double digit road favorites since 1980 when they eked out a win at Dallas Sunday, New England rides a 7-1 ATS streak since the 2016 season when laying 10 or more on the road. (Read the MNF preview)

Its just the second time the Jets have been double digit home underdogs. The last was 2018 against these same Patriots, who just covered 13 points with a 27-13 win.

Interestingly, the UNDER is 10-1 in their past 11 games in this situation.

Editor Note: Archived article from Friday Nov. 5, 2020 below

Pittsburgh is a double digit road favorite at Dallas in Week 9, which has rekindled the discussion around whether you back or fade those huge NFL favorites.

The Steelers will currently face a 14-point spread against the Cowboys, which makes Dallas just the fourth team this season to be a double-digit home underdog. Of course, as we malign the NFC East for its pathetic play this year, it should be noted that the other three teams have also been double digit home dogs this season (Giants +13 to Tampa in Week 9, Eagles +10 to the Ravens in Week 6 and Washington +14 to Baltimore in Week 4).

No other team in any other division has experienced such a slap in the face from oddsmakers.

Regardless of all that, how should bettors treat this game? Is there an advantage that makes sense historically? Do home dogs fight harder because of they are being disrespected? Does the road team rest its star players and not try to run up the score?

(Check the matchup report and follow live odds updates during Week 9).

Recent history of Double Digit Road Favorites

The 2020 history shows favorites as 0-2-1 ATS. All three won. Over the past few seasons, with several teams in rebuilding modes, there were 18 situations, which showed a perfect split of 9-9 ATS dating to Dec. 2, 2018).

Going back in time however, there was a stretch of games in NFL betting history when double digit road favorites were a lock – to lose against the spread, that is. (Read our 2012 article on the same topic).

In 18 games between Dec. 6, 2009 (Chargers at Browns) and Nov. 25, 2012 (Broncos at Chiefs), those big road favorites went 1-17 ATS! True story, according to our trusty NFL database which tracks openings and closing lines since 1980.

Pittsburgh shares double digit road favorite shame

Since Dec. 27, 2015, there have been only six cases where the double digit road favorite lost outright. And two teams have the betting shame of losing twice – one is New England, which lost at Miami Dec. 11, 2017 and also Jan. 3, 2016. The other? These same Pittsburgh Steelers, who lost Dec. 19, 2018 at the Raiders and Dec. 27, 2015 at Baltimore.

So while the idea that Pittsburgh could lose at Dallas, who will start a fourth-string QB, is a bit preposterous, shit happens. And if you don’t buy the upset theory, maybe you should embrace the bet the home underdog to cover theory. Why? The Steelers record as double-digit road favorites since 1980 is 1-12 ATS and just 8-5 SU.

Double Digit Road Favorites in 2020

Road Score Home Score Spread
Tampa Bay 25 NY Giants 23 +13
Baltimore 30 Philadelphia 28 +10
Baltimore 31 Washington 17 +14

Bet the game now, check out our sportsbook review pages for the best place to bet on football in your state.

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.