Sep 13, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) against the New Orleans Saints during the first quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Bucs Saints Playoff Pick, More of the Same?

Two days after Drew Brees’s 42nd birthday, the NFL’s two oldest active players and the two most prolific passers in NFL history will battle in the oldest quarterback matchup of all time. It could be Brees’s last game, or a second consecutive early-playoff failure for the legendary Tom Brady (43).

 

Brees’s New Orleans Saints are favored by three points at home, which essentially means oddsmakers and the public view this as an even matchup. But that certainly wasn’t the case when the Saints outscored Tampa Bay 72-26 in two regular-season New Orleans victories.

Should we expect more of the same Sunday night? Check out Deeg’s top 5 Saints Bucs playoff prop bets as well for more profit potential.

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Buccaneers Saints Playoff Pick, Odds: New Orleans -3, Total 52 | Matchup Report

WHY THE BUCCANEERS WILL COVER the spread

This was the first time Brady has ever lost to one team twice in a season. Does anybody want to confidently predict it’ll suddenly happen three times in a four-month span? That’s tough to wrap your head around, which is why taking three points in a mostly-empty Superdome does have its merits.

Consider, too, that the Saints have flamed out in either their first or second playoff game in each of their last three postseason “runs.” They seem to hit a wall this time of year, top offensive weapons Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas don’t appear to be 100 percent and the Bucs are on absolute fire offensively.

WHY THE SAINTS WILL COVER the spread

Tampa’s top-rated run defense might be able to take Kamara away on the ground, but at least he’ll play and he is of course more than just a runner. He should make an impact as a receiver for Brees, while Tampa Bay’s offense might be without top back Ronald Jones II against a run D that ranks second to only Tampa Bay’s in terms of DVOA.

Brady has been more of a factor than Brees lately, but the Saints have the overall defensive advantage on paper, they’re healthier (Tampa Bay also lost starting guard Alex Cappa to injury last week) and the Saints sure as hell seem to have their number.

BUCCANEERS SAINTS PLAYOFF PICK

The Saints defense has given up just 16 points the last two weeks, and Brees is gaining some post-injury steam now. They’re due for one final run, possibly before Brees retires. This won’t be a blowout, and the push is definitely in play, but the Saints are the smart bet.

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of NationalFootballPost.com and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at Brad@NationalFootballPost.com

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