Jan 4, 2020; Houston, Texas, USA;  A view of the Wild Card logo before the AFC Wild Card NFL Playoff game between the Houston Texans and the Buffalo Bills at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Week 10 Picks – Chiefs, Rams, Seahawks

We’ll be here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread every week, and we’re still well above .500 approaching the midway pole. Here are 14 fresh takes for Week 10 NFL picks, with odds coming as of midweek at FanDuel or Draft Kings, official betting partners of the NFL.

Check the current odds during the week as these lines are moving as action rolls in.

2021 RECORD: 64-71-1

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7.5) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS: DOLPHINS

The Ravens have been cutting it close all season. Now, they’re traveling on short rest. That hook is too risky for me. Miami might be sucking this year, but the team still has plenty of talent.

BUFFALO BILLS (-11.5) AT NEW YORK JETS: BILLS

All five Bills wins this season have come by 15-plus points. I think they rebound in strong fashion from that embarrassment against the Jaguars with a blowout against a feisty but low-talent team.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-9.5) AT WASHINGTON: BUCS

When coming off extra rest, Tom Brady and the Bucs have won five consecutive games by an average margin of 20 points. Thrilled that I’m not even giving up double digits here.

ATLANTA FALCONS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-8): COWBOYS

The Cowboys have too much talent not to bounce back from a brutal loss, and the Falcons aren’t reliable. Dallas by a double-digit margin.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (-3): SAINTS

The Saints have the defensive talent to take advantage of Derrick Henry’s absence for a Titans team that is simply due for a come-back-to-earth game. New Orleans wins this one straight-up.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-10): COLTS

The Colts are putting it together, while the Jags are unlikely to see lightning strike twice. They’re still the worst team in football and now they’re on the road against a desperate team gaining momentum. Every Colts win this season has come by a double-digit margin, while eight of Jacksonville’s last 10 losses have come by at least 12 points. Blowout.

DETROIT LIONS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-8): LIONS

I get the feeling Dan Campbell’s Lions will have some fire in them coming off their bye week. Meanwhile, the banged-up Steelers are operating on short rest after reminding us Monday night against the Chicago Bears that they’re quite flawed. Too many points here.

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-1.5): PATRIOTS

The Browns are in rough shape, while the Patriots seem to be finding a groove. Bill Belichick won’t mess around against his former team, and a Pats squad that hasn’t lost in regulation since nearly beating the mighty Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4 will prevail.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-3): CHARGERS

The Chargers are a substantially better team than Minnesota. I truly don’t understand why oddsmakers would view them as being essentially equal with this line.

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (-10.5): PANTHERS

I wouldn’t spend anything on this game considering Arizona’s injury questions, but it’s safe to say Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are far from 100 percent. I think we’re also forgetting the impact an increasingly healthy Christian McCaffrey can make for Carolina. They’ll hang around.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT DENVER BRONCOS (-3): EAGLES

The Broncos aren’t likely to sustain whatever the hell happened last week in Dallas, and the absence of key offensive linemen Garett Bolles and Graham Glasgow could be a huge factor against an Eagles squad with a strong and experienced defensive front.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3.5): SEAHAWKS

I’m on Seattle even if Aaron Rodgers returns for the Packers. Russell Wilson won’t let the Seahawks fade out of contention, and the Packers are overrated and shorthanded regardless. Love that hook.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-2.5) AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: CHIEFS

Honestly, everything here points to the Raiders. The Chiefs have covered just four spreads in their last 20 games and have multiple problems right now on both sides of the ball. Still, I’d have to buy an outright Raiders win to lay these points and I don’t feel comfortable doing that with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid having their backs against the wall.

LOS ANGELES RAMS (-3.5) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: RAMS

I was also tempted to take the hook with the 49ers here so I wouldn’t bet this game. Ultimately, I’ve lost too much trust for San Francisco and they’re running into the Rams at a bad time considering L.A.’s brutal Week 9 experience against the Titans.

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Archived Week 10 NFL picks article from Nov. 12, 2020

2020 RECORD: 66-60-3

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-1) AT TENNESSEE TITANS: TITANS

The Titans have covered in their last four home games and are simply a better, more trustworthy team. Why in the world are they laying just a single point at home against an erratic opponent traveling on short rest on this Week 10 Thursday Nighter?

HOUSTON TEXANS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3.5): TEXANS

The Texans defense sucks but Cleveland’s just so damn depleted and Deshaun Watson is a hell of a lot better than Baker Mayfield. Dude quietly has a 116.0 passer rating in his last six games, and he should keep this within a field goal.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-13): PACKERS

Looking for rookie Jags quarterback Jake Luton to come back to earth against a pretty strong pass defense, and expecting the league’s highest-rated passer, Aaron Rodgers, to light up a horrendous Jacksonville pass D in a blowout.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3.5) AT NEW YORK GIANTS: GIANTS

Don’t do it. Skip it if you can, and don’t look back. But if you have to deal with this NFC Least monstrosity, take the field goal and the hook with a Giants team that hasn’t lost by more than a field goal in any of its last five games. Philly is still quite a mess, despite their improving injury situation. 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-5.5) AT CAROLINA PANTHERS: BUCS

Tom Brady will be fired up to bounce back from a poor Week 9 performance and the Panthers’ novice defense gives him the perfect opportunity to do just that. Plus, no Christian McCaffrey again for Carolina. The Bucs roll over the Panthers for the second time this season.

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM AT DETROIT LIONS (-4.5): WASHINGTON

Huh? WTF is WFT getting nearly a handful of points from an unstable Lions team that has been manhandled in back-to-back weeks and is fading from relevance yet again? Washington’s D is strong, and its decent running game should find plenty of holes against a poor run D. WFT wins outright.

BUFFALO BILLS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (-2): CARDINALS

Arizona is getting no respect as a mere two-point fave at home against a Bills team that looked strong last Sunday at home but was a mess in the previous four weeks. Arizona is clearly the better team here, so this is great value.

DENVER BRONCOS AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-5): BRONCOS

Broncos quarterback Drew Lock has come alive late in each of Denver’s last two games, and now he might have a chance to catch fire earlier against a bad pass defense. You never know what you’re going to get from the Broncos, but five points is way too much.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (-2.5): DOLPHINS

I went back and forth on this because the Chargers — even in their short-handed state — are a better team on paper than Miami, and the Bolts are certainly due a favor from the football gods. But coaching matters, and the home team is hotter, better-coached and laying less than a field goal. That’s irresistible.

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-7): BENGALS

The Steelers keep cutting it way too close, while the Bengals simply hang with everyone. They’ve got just one multi-score loss this season and they’re coming off their bye. With the back-door cover also a potential avenue, this is a no-brainer.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-1.5): SEAHAWKS

Shocked to see Seattle getting points here. Russell Wilson will be inspired after a tough performance in Buffalo, he’s familiar with L.A.’s top-heavy, one-dimensional defense and the Rams won’t have any fans in attendance to justify any sort of home-field edge here. The Rams are overrated and the whole world will see that Sunday.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-9): SAINTS

Oddsmakers might be giving too much credit to San Francisco’s bye week, as it looks as though the 49ers will be just as gutted Sunday as they were in Week 8. This depleted team wasn’t remotely competitive in its final two games before the bye, and now it’ll have to deal with the surging Saints as Michael Thomas gets healthier. This is a blowout waiting to happen.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: PATRIOTS

I think Ronnie Stanley’s injury is eventually going to catch up to a Ravens offensive line that was already without Marshal Yanda this season, and Bill Belichick is smart enough to really exploit that despite a lack of talent on the roster. Calais Campbell and Matt Judon are also hurt for Baltimore, so I think the desperate Pats will somehow keep this close.

Trend Dummy has a deep dive into New England as a home underdog, which proved a huge moneymaker over two seasons, but those 20 years were Tim Brady years…

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3) AT CHICAGO BEARS: VIKINGS

This line still isn’t fully accounting for the fact the Bears have been completely exposed the last few weeks, while Dalvin Cook looks unstoppable for the Vikings. Chicago’s run defense can be soft at times, which could be hugely problematic considering how hot Cook is. I also can’t see Nick Foles exploiting Minnesota’s depleted pass defense. This should be more than a three-point spread.

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of NationalFootballPost.com and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at Brad@NationalFootballPost.com

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