Sep 26, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA;   Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a pass in the first half of the game against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Week 4 NFL Picks- Brady back to Pats

Week 4 NFL picks continue after a strong showing with our first three weeks, here are the next 15 kicks at the can, with odds coming from FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out live odds and matchup reports on every game as well.

2021 RECORD: 23-25

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7.5): JAGUARS

The Jags have lost seven consecutive games by double-digit margins but the Bengals aren’t trustworthy yet either and that’s a lot of points for a rebuilding team that could suffer a letdown coming off a huge win over a mighty division rival. The backdoor could also be in play. Bengals win a closer-than-expected Thursday Nighter.

WASHINGTON (-1) AT ATLANTA FALCONS: WASHINGTON

The stacked Washington defense is much more likely to finally put it together than any unit associated with the dud Falcons. Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the league and should not be in pick’em range against a mentally tough WFT squad.

HOUSTON TEXANS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-16): BILLS

This is a scary number but the Texans are a mess and the Bills are putting it back together after a slow start. Buffalo’s last five regular-season victories have come by 22 or more points. They’re good at winning in convincing fashion.

DETROIT LIONS AT CHICAGO BEARS (-3): BEARS

The Bears were a train wreck last week but remain a lot better overall than Detroit. I’m sure they’ll have made some adjustments here, but I do think a push remains the most likely outcome. I’ll lay the points but wouldn’t bet here. See also Deeg’s preview and pick of this game.

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-4): PANTHERS

The Carolina defense looks legit. They’ve invested heavily in that unit and they’ve delivered. I’m not as convinced the Dallas defense is for real because there’s been almost no investment there. On short rest, I’m not picking the Cowboys to cover more than a field goal against a 3-0 opponent.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (-2): DOLPHINS

It’s really hard to back the Colts on the road against a defensively-stout, healthier and well-coached opponent. They’re too banged up on offense right now. Why isn’t Miami laying at least a full field goal?

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2) AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS: BROWNS

The Vikings are playing well but have never been mistaken for consistent, and Myles Garrett and Co. shouldn’t have too much trouble picking on a weak offensive line. Kirk Cousins is due for a dud, so it’s surprising the much more talented team is laying less than a field goal here as well.

NEW YORK GIANTS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-7.5): GIANTS

I’m not dropping a touchdown plus a hook with the inconsistent and unreliable Saints and their erratic quarterback, especially with left tackle Terron Armstead out for New Orleans. The Giants are due to at least cover a spread. They should put up a fight here.

TENNESSEE TITANS (-7) AT NEW YORK JETS: JETS

I’m likely going to regret this one, and I wouldn’t recommend dropping big bucks on the messy Jets right now. That said, they’re at home and the Titans haven’t been themselves either. Tennessee might also be without its top two wide receivers, so I’m rolling the dice.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: CHIEFS

The Chiefs are now 2-12 against the spread in their last 14 games, but I can’t see Patrick Mahomes and Co. cutting this close. They’ll win big for Andy Reid in his former home, especially with the Eagles in rough shape coming off a Monday night loss.

ARIZONA CARDINALS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-4): CARDINALS

The Rams have won eight straight matchups with Arizona, all by at least seven points. It’s time for that to change. Arizona has absolutely performed on a similar level as L.A. this season and should stick around here as the Rams try to avoid a letdown after beating the defending champs.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3): SEAHAWKS

Russell Wilson has never lost three consecutive games in his career and the Seahawks haven’t lost in regulation in San Francisco since 2013. Not sure why they’re getting a full field goal, especially considering that the banged-up Niners are coming off a tough prime-time loss at home.

BALTIMORE RAVENS AT DENVER BRONCOS (-1): BRONCOS

I don’t trust Teddy Bridgewater enough to bet on the banged-up Broncos, especially with Lamar Jackson on the other side. But Baltimore hasn’t played well outside of the Kansas City game and Denver’s the better all-around team right now. If I have to take someone, it’s the Broncos. (Note: Colorado bettors and Virginia bettors all legal for online NFL betting, visit Draft Kings or FanDuel for the best sportsbook welcome offers and free bet specials).

PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6.5): PACKERS

The Packers are putting it together while the Steelers look resigned. No way I’m taking Pittsburgh at Lambeau right now with less than a touchdown in my back pocket.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-7) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: PATRIOTS

The Patriots aren’t in great shape but it’s hard to imagine them not putting up a huge fight against Tom Brady and Co. in this spot. Bill Belichick has never lost three consecutive home games as New England’s head coach. That might finally happen here, but I doubt it’ll be a blowout. (Note: See Tom Brady GOAT DFS special offers at FanDuel.)

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-3): CHARGERS

A push is by far the most likely result in this divisional matchup between two relatively similar teams, talent-wise. But the Chargers have the higher ceiling and they’re at home. I’ll lay the points but this could go either way, or no way at all.

Archived Week 4 NFL picks article from Oct. 2, 2020

2020 RECORD: 30-17-1

DENVER BRONCOS (-1) AT NEW YORK JETS: JETS

Hate myself for doing this, but the Broncos are even more banged up than the Jets and it’s possible Gang Green will be fired up on behalf of head coach Adam Gase, who looks to be on the hot seat. I need a shower. Jets by a field goal against a depleted team traveling on short rest.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-3) AT CAROLINA PANTHERS: CARDINALS

Cards quarterback Kyler Murray is likely to bounce back from a rough outing because the rebuilding Carolina defense is a mess. Teddy Bridgewater might not have the arm to take advantage of Arizona’s shortcomings in the defensive backfield, especially without superstar back Christian McCaffrey. Arizona wins by a double-digit margin.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-13.5) AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM: RAVENS

A Ravens team that simply knows how to win will be fired up to send a message here, and the WFT won’t be able to do much to stop Lamar Jackson without Chase Young likely out alongside Matt Ioannidis. Dwayne Haskins Jr. is struggling with limited support and the veteran Ravens D should own him Sunday. It’s by far the biggest road number of the year. Blowout coming.

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-4.5): BROWNS

The depleted Dallas front seven might not be able to slow down Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and the offensive line still isn’t in great shape for a matchup with Myles Garrett on the other side of the ball. I’m not willing to spot Cleveland a handful of points here. This’ll be a very close game.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2.5) AT CHICAGO BEARS: COLTS

The Bears could so easily be 0-3, and now they’re taking on an underrated Indy squad with the best team DVOA in the NFL. This will be a correction game, with the awesome Colts defense shutting down Nick Foles and the still-questionable Chicago offense. Indianapolis by at least a touchdown.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3): JAGUARS

Bengals by a field goal is the most likely result here, but the second-most-likely outcome is a narrow win for either team. That’s simply why the better-rested Jags make more sense against a bad team with a rookie quarterback who isn’t well-protected. Push feels like the worst-case scenario, especially with D.J. Chark likely to return to the Jags lineup.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-7): BUCCANEERS

I’d be all over L.A. here if the Bolts were so ravaged by injuries. It’s just going to be tough to travel across the country with so many key players hurt on both sides of the ball, and Tampa Bay’s fierce defensive front should have a field day with Justin Herbert and his weak offensive line. Bucs by double digits.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-4): VIKINGS

Both are due, but the Texans have more talent and are at home, which is why I think they deliver the moneyline here. But why in the world would I lay four points? The Vikes are talented enough to stick around against a mediocre defense, and they’ll be desperate as well. This is a field-goal game.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-4) AT DETROIT LIONS: SAINTS

New Orleans is 5-0 straight-up and against the spread in their last five Week 4 games. They typically start slow and then pick it up right around now, which means the depleted Lions secondary is in the wrong place at the wrong time — especially if Michael Thomas is able to go for the Saints. The Lions haven’t won back-to-back games since last September and haven’t covered consecutive spreads since last October. Look for that trend to continue here.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6.5) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS: DOLPHINS

The public is all over Seattle because of the hype surrounding Russell Wilson, but Miami is on extra rest and could get top corner Byron Jones back from injury. Ryan Fitzpatrick is also on fire and facing a porous Seahawks pass defense. In Miami, this could be closer than most expect.

NEW YORK GIANTS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-12.5): RAMS

The Giants won’t be able to take advantage of a vulnerable Rams run defense without top back Saquon Barkley, and as a result, Daniel Jones could be in trouble with Aaron Donald. Jared Goff and the Rams offense is cruising as well, and it’s hard to imagine the Giants interrupting that flow.

BUFFALO BILLS (-3) AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: BILLS

The Raiders came back to earth with a tough loss to the New England Patriots last week and could be in even more trouble with both Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs III likely sidelined on offense against Buffalo. The Bills are on fire right now, and the Raiders secondary should be easy for Josh Allen’s big arm to deal with.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7): PATRIOTS

New England hasn’t failed to cover as a seven-plus-point underdog since Tom Brady’s fifth career start back in 2001. The Pats are well-coached and defensively stout, and they simply know how to stick around. That should again happen here with Kansas City coming off a short week and a high-energy victory over Baltimore.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-7): 49ERS

I can’t bring myself to pick Philly considering all of its injuries, Carson Wentz’s apparent yips and the fact the 49ers are actually getting healthier with stud tight end George Kittle expected to return. Can the Eagles really take advantage of all the injuries to San Francisco’s defensive front? It doesn’t feel like it, and the push could be on our side here anyway.

ATLANTA FALCONS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7): PACKERS

The Falcons have lost my trust entirely, while Green Bay’s offense is the hottest in football. The Packers have a strong enough pass rush to counter Matt Ryan and a banged-up Julio Jones, the Falcons don’t have the rushing talent to take advantage of a beatable Green Bay run D, and an Atlanta secondary in shambles could be screwed if Davante Adams returns to the Packers offense.