Sep 12, 2021; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker T.J. Watt (90) takes a drink against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Week 6 NFL Betting Trends

Bet UNDER in the Thursday Nighter at your financial peril because Tampa Bay is awash in OVER trends as they visit Philadelphia. But beware the favored Bucs in October and on a Thursday, where they have struggled against the spread.

Elsewhere, the Packers almost never lose in Chicago but almost never cover on Week 6 for some reason. And the imperfect Chiefs own a perfect 7-0 ATS streak against Washington – get more Week 6 NFL betting trends here, odds as of Tuesday courtesy of FanDuel, check them out for wicked bonuses and all the line moves during the week.

Week 6 NFL Betting Trends

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia +7, Total 51.5 | Matchup Report

OVER is 5-1 past 6 meetings of TB and Philly

OVER is 22-6 past 28 Tampa games within NFC

OVER is 24-9 Tampa Bay’s last 33 games played in October.

OVER is 6-1 past 7 Bucs games in Week 6

OVER is16-6 past 22 TB games as favorites

Bucs are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games on the road

Bucs are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games played in October.

Bucs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Thursday.

UNDER is 13-4 past 17 Philly home games

UNDER is 10-4 past 14 Eagles games within NFC

Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 6.

Eagles are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games played on a Thursday including 6 straight SU (5-1 ATS)

Miami @ Jacksonville +3.5, Total 45.5 | Matchup Report

Jaguars have lost 20 straight games

UNDER is 7-1 past 8 meetings of Jags and Fins

Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games played in Week 6.

Dolphins are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games as the favorite.

Jaguars are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games played in October.

Jaguars failed to cover past 3 games before bye week

Green Bay @ Chicago +4.5, Total 45 | Matchup Report

Bears are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games at home vs Green Bay

Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games.

Packers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against Chicago.

Packers are 15-6 SU in their last 21 games on the road.

Packers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games when playing on the road against Chicago

Packers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games played in Week 6.

UNDER is 16-5 Chicago’s last 21 games at home.

Bears have played 7 straight October UNDERs, 14-5 past 19 in October.

Houston @ Indianapolis -9.5, Total 43.5 | Matchup Report

Colts are 16-3 SU in their last 19 games at home against Houston

OVER is 8-1 Houston’s last 9 games played in Week 6.

UNDER is 10-2 past 12 meetings here in Indy

Colts are 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games played in Week 6

Kansas City @ Washington +6.5, Total 55.5 | Matchup Report

Chiefs are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 games

Chiefs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games against Washington.

LA Rams @ New York Giants +10.5, Total 47.5 | Matchup Report

Rams have been double-digit road favorites twice since 2003, they covered both games played UNDER both games.

NY Giants are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against LA Rams.

UNDER in 11-2 LA Rams’ last 13 games played in October.

Rams are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 conference games

Giants are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games at home.

Giants are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against an opponent in the NFC.

LA Chargers @ Baltimore -2.5, Total 52 | Matchup Report

Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games.

Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games at Baltimore

Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the AFC.

Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games played in October.

UNDER is 15-6 LA Chargers’ last 21 games played in Week 6.

Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in Week 6.

Ravens are 22-6 SU in their last 28 games as the favorite.

Arizona @ Cleveland -3, Total 49 | Matchup Report

Browns are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games against an opponent in the NFC West division.

Browns are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games as the favorite.

Cardinals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games played in October.

UNDER is 9-2 Arizona’s last 11 games on the road.

Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in Week 6.

Browns are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games played in Week 6.

Sunday Night Trends

Seattle @ Pittsburgh -4.5, Total 42 | Matchup Report

Steelers are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games played in October.

UNDER is 9-2 Pittsburgh’s last 11 games played in Week 6, 14-6 ATS in past 20

UNDER is 11-3 Seattle’s last 14 games.

Seahawks are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games played in October.

Seahawks are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games played in week 6.

Seahawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games when playing as the underdog.

Steelers are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games played in October.

Steelers 1-5 SU, 0-6 ATS as chalk

Monday Night Football Betting Trends

Buffalo @ Tennessee +5.5, Total 54 | Matchup Report

OVER is 10-3 Tennessee’s last 13 games as the underdog

Bills are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games

Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road

Bills are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against an opponent in the AFC.

Bills are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games played on a Monday.

Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing as the favorite

Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Monday.

Titans have played 5 straight OVER as regular-season home dogs

More trends shortly….

Archived Week 6 NFL betting trends piece from Oct. 16, 2020

Cleveland is making believers out of fans and bettors alike, but can you trust them with a moneyline bet in Pittsburgh, a place they have won just once in 21 tries?

Some bettors like the Browns at +3.5, but beware their 1-7 ATS in eight recent road games and the fact they have lost 16 straight at Pittsburgh. Other divisional action sees intriguing Week 6 NFL betting trends, including the Washington vs NY Giants matchup where the OVER is 16-5 the past 21 meetings in the Meadowlands.

No Thursday Nighter this week, so we zoom straight to Sunday for Week 6 betting trends list. And check out our comparative NFL odds page for matchup reports and stats breakdowns and see Fan Duel Sportsbook or Draft Kings to sign up and start betting for real money.

Cleveland +3.5 at Pittsburgh Total 51 at FanDuel | Matchup Report

The Browns have lost 16 straight at Pittsburgh and 20 of 21. They have also been money losers as visitors. There are Cleveland OVER trends and Pittsburgh UNDER trends. You’re on your own with this one…

OVER is 8-3 past 11 Cleveland games.

Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games

OVER is 11-2 Cleveland’s last 13 games played in Week 6.

UNDER is 15-6 Pittsburgh’s last 21 conference games

UNDER is 8-3 Pittsburgh’s last 11 divisional games

Pittsburgh is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in October.

Atlanta +3.5 at Minnesota Total 55 | Matchup Report

This line moved 3 points when Dalvin Cook was declared out. But the Vikings are 10-1 SU and ATS since 2009 before their bye week. The Falcons have been covering road spreads lately (5-1 ATS) but fail to cover historically vs the Vikings.

Atlanta is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Minnesota.

UNDER is 8-3 past 11 meetings between these teams

Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.

Atlanta is 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games played in October.

Atlanta is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing as the underdog.

UNDER is 14-6 Minnesota’s last 20 conference games

Minnesota is 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games played in October.

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More Week 6 NFL Betting Trends

Baltimore -7.5 at Philadelphia Total 47.5 | Matchup Report

This is the biggest home dog number for Eagles since final week of the 2005 season when they were +7.5 in a meaningless game vs Washington. That was a Mark Brunell vs Jim McMahon battle where the great Sean Taylor returned a fumble for a TD to seal the game. The Eagles usually play UNDER at home and usually fail to cover at home on Sundays.

Baltimore is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games

Baltimore has won 8 straight road games SU and 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games on the road.

UNDER is 18-6 Philadelphia’s last 24 games at home.

Philadelphia is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games played on a Sunday when playing at home.

Eagles 6-22 SU as regular home underdog since 1999, 3-11 ATS past 14 times

Cincinnati +8 at Indianapolis Total 46.5 at BetRivers Indiana | Matchup Report

The Colts before a bye week has been easy money over the years (8 covers in a row in this situation). Cincy never wins here and never wins on the road, but they have been terrific ATS as a road team (10-4 ATS past 14 games).

Cincinnati is 0-14-1 SU in their last 15 games on the road, but 10-4 ATS past 14

Cincinnati is 1-8 SU in their last 9 games at Indianapolis.

OVER is 10-2 Indianapolis’ last 12 games played in Week 6

Colts are 7-1 SU, perfect 8-0 ATS past 8 seasons before their bye week

Detroit -3.5 at Jacksonville Total 54.5 | Matchup Report

The Jaguars lost past two seasons in pre-bye week games at home and they are home dogs to a bad Detroit team. This is an ugly mess…

Detroit is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games.

Detroit is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on the road.

Washington +3 at NY Giants Total 43 | Matchup Report

Talk about messes, do you back the team which is 4-19 SU in their past 23 games or the team that is 4-20 SU in their past 24 games? This makes the Giants one loss worse than Washington. The UNDER could be the play, historically the UNDER is 16-5 in 21 seasons played here between these teams. Brad Gagnon disagrees by the way and likes this game OVER.

UNDER is 16-5 past 21 meetings here

Washington is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 divisional games

NY Giants are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against Washington.

NY Giants are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games at home.

NY Giants are 5-16 SU in their last 21 games played in October.

OVER is 8-2 NY Giants’ last 10 games as favorites.

Chicago +2.5 at Carolina Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

One minute the Bears are 3-0 and alleged contenders, the next minute they are underdogs in Carolina.

UNDER is 8-3 Chicago’s last 11 games when playing as the underdog

Carolina is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing as the favorite.

Houston +4.5 at Tennessee Total | Matchup Report  

Tennessee comes off a short week, after a Covid-mandated long layoff and now face a desperate Houston team that usually covers the spread against them.

Houston is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games against Tennessee.

Houston is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games

UNDER is 15-6 Houston’s last 21 divisional games

OVER is 19-7 Houston’s last 26 games played in October

Denver +9.5 at New England Total 46.5 | Matchup Report

UNDER trends galore follow the Broncos into Foxboro, where the Pats almost never lose in October. Broncos have failed to cover five straight here.

Denver is 7-21 SU in their last 28 games on the road but 6-2 ATS past 8

Denver is 0-5 ATS past 5 games at New England.

UNDER is 20-7 Denver’s last 27 conference games

UNDER is 14-5 Denver’s last 19 games played in October.

UNDER is 18-7 Denver’s last 25 games when playing as the underdog.

Denver is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when playing as the underdog.

New England is 25-3 SU in their last 28 games played in October.

New England is 7-0 SU in their last 7 games played in Week 6, 10-1 SU past 11

NY Jets +10 at Miami Total 47 | Matchup Report

You’re thinking, ‘Golly how long has it been since the Dolphins were double-digit favorites?’ The answer is Nov. 15, 2009 when they were -10 to Tampa Bay and won 25-23. In fact, Miami failed to cover the past four times in this role and they haven’t covered a double-digit spread since beating the Bears 27-9 way back Dec. 9, 2002. Ricky Williams ran for two scores and Jay Fiedler won as Dolphins QB. Every betting trend imaginable says ‘Fade the Jets,’ even with the Dolphins 1-11 ATS as double-digit chalk since 1992.

Dolphins 1-11 ATS since 1992 as DD chalk

Jets 0-5 ATS on the season

Jets are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games against Miami.

Jets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on the road

Jets are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games against an opponent in the AFC

Jets are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games against an opponent in the AFC East division

Jets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played in October.

Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing as the underdog

Dolphins are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games

Dolphins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against an opponent in the AFC

Dolphins covered 5 straight Week 6 games

Green Bay -2 at Tampa Bay Total 54.5 | Matchup Report

Good luck figuring out why Tampa Bay is 1-12-1 ATS in October games that past three seasons. But what if there’s something to it? It makes about as much sense as the Packers failing to cover their past five Week 6 games.

Green Bay is 18-4 SU in their last 22 games.

Green Bay is 0-5 ATS in Week 6.

Green Bay is 11-1 SU in their last 12 games as chalk (8-3 ATS past 11)

OVER is 12-1 Tampa Bay’s last 13 conference games

Tampa Bay is 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 games played in October.

OVER is 17-6 Tampa Bay’s last 23 games as underdog.

LA Rams -3.5 at San Francisco Total 51 | Matchup Report

The Rams have been profitable as a road team and within conference and divisional games. Meanwhile the Niners are 5-1 ATS in their past six games as underdogs.

Rams are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 conference games.

Rams are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games

Rams are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 divisional games

Francisco are 5-1 ATS past 6 games as underdog.

Kansas City -3.5  at Buffalo Total 57.5  | Matchup Report

The first Monday Nighter and the Chiefs haven’t been playing great, but the Bills come off a short week after getting manhandled by the Titans on Tuesday. The UNDER usually prevails when the Bills are underdogs (11-1 past 12 times in this situation), while the Chiefs hold positive trends as chalk and on MNF.

Kansas City is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games

Kansas City is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games against Buffalo.

Kansas City is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games played on a Monday.

Kansas City is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing as the favourite.

Buffalo is 3-11 SU in their last 14 Monday Nighters.

UNDER in 11-1 Buffalo’s last 12 games as underdog

Arizona -2.5 at Dallas Total 55 | Matchup Report

The Cardinal historically lose in Dallas (1-5 ATS streak) and fail on Mondays (2-11-1 ATS). The Cowboys have been good on Mondays and as underdogs. Seems pretty simple….’

Arizona is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games at Dallas

Arizona is 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games played on a Monday.

OVER is 16-5 Dallas’ last 21 conference games

Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Monday.

Dallas is 8-3 ATS past 11 games as the underdog.

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.