Week 12 College Football Picks: Syracuse-Notre Dame Yankee Stadium Clash, WVU at OK State

Each week we’ll be providing our top college football picks.

Also check out our NFL Week 11 “Lookahead Lines” story, finding value (or not) by comparing earlier lines, and identifying recency bias.

Back to the college game. (Season record: 20-15.)

Week 12 College Football Picks, Preview: West Virginia in a Great Spot on the Road and Syracuse Catching Points Against Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium

notre dame syracuse cfb week 12


Memphis/SMU OVER 72.5 (Friday)

I grew up rooting for the old Pony Express so I’m a closet SMU fan. I know the team well and the Ponies have had little success against Memphis in recent years. In their last four games against SMU, Memphis has scored 48, 63, 51 and 66 points. The Tigers won last year’s meeting 66-45 and we should see another game that approaches 100 points.

SMU’s offense is finally starting to click under new coach Sonny Dykes. The Mustangs have scored 107 points in their last two games with wins over Houston and UConn. Memphis has scored 106 points in its last two games with victories over East Carolina and Tulsa.

While the Mustangs’ offense is rolling, their defense continues to struggle. SMU is allowing 242 rushing yards per game in conference play and now must face Memphis running back Darrell Henderson who is averaging 9.2 yards per carry on the season.

SMU ranks 115th in scoring defense allowing 36.8 points per game, while Memphis ranks 86th giving up 30.5 per contest. Both teams will put up points with ease Friday night in what could be the highest-scoring game of the college football season.

 

Read more Week 12 College Football Picks: Syracuse-Notre Dame Yankee Stadium Clash, WVU at OK State on SportsHandle.

Week 11 College Football Picks: Fresno Over Boise, Washington State A Short Road Favorite And More

Each week we’ll be providing our top college football picks. Season Record: 17-13.

This week we have six plays, including Fresno State laying a short number on the road in Boise and fading Duke as a big favorite.

Also check out our NFL Week 10 “Lookahead Lines” story, finding value (or not) by comparing earlier lines, and identifying recency bias. Back to the college game:

Week 11 College Football Picks: Fresno State Bulldogs -2.5 at Boise State, Fading Duke, And More Miami Dominance Over Georgia Tech


Fresno State -2.5 over Boise State (Friday)

This is a huge game in the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State is 8-1 and Boise State 7-2. It might be surprising to see the Broncos as the home dog here but there’s a reason for it. Fresno State is just a much better team.

The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and won last year in Boise 28-17. Boise State has already lost at home to San Diego State and its offense struggles against better defenses. Fresno State is holding conference opponents to 93 yards below their season average, while quarterbacks hit just 48 percent of their passes against the Bulldogs.

A Las Vegas oddsmaker recently stated he would make Fresno State around a field goal favorite over UCF on a neutral field. The Bulldogs are the best non-Power 5 team this season. There’s value taking the Bulldogs under a field goal. They should win rather easily on the road in a showcase game.

 

 

Read more Week 11 College Football Picks: Fresno Over Boise, Washington State A Short Road Favorite And More on SportsHandle.

Week 9 College Football Picks: LSU +15 Against No. 1-Ranked Alabama, And More

Each week we’ll be providing our top college football picks.

Also check out our NFL “Lookahead Lines” story, finding value (or not) by comparing earlier lines, and identifying recency bias.

This week we have six plays, including a rebound spot for Oregon and LSU getting over two touchdowns at home versus Alabama.

Week 9 College Football Picks: LSU +15 Over Alabama, Ducks -10 Over UCLA & More

cfb picks week 10 ucla oregon
RB Joshua Kelley

Oregon -10 over UCLA

Oregon is my favorite play of the season so far, assuming quarterback Justin Herbert plays. Herbert suffered a concussion in last week’s loss to Arizona but returned to practice Wednesday.

Nothing went right for the Ducks in Tucson. It was an awful spot for them coming off two emotional games against Washington and Washington State. I looked hard at fading the Ducks last week but just couldn’t trust Arizona.

While last week was a terrible spot for Oregon, this week is the exact opposite. Chip Kelly returns to Eugene where he was the head coach for four years and led the Ducks to the National Championship Game. His UCLA Bruins are coming off a 31-point loss to Utah and have dropped 10 of their last 11 conference games on the road by an average of 16 points.

Oregon has Utah on deck but because they got hammered by Arizona, the Ducks can’t afford to look past the overmatched Bruins. Nothing went right for Oregon against Arizona. It’s one of those games you just throw away because Oregon simply didn’t show up. Expect them to show up Saturday with Kelly in town.

Oregon is 4-1 at home this season. The Ducks’ only loss was to Stanford when they fumbled running out the clock. I expect Oregon to roll at home on Saturday. This line should be up to two touchdowns by kickoff. It opened Oregon -13 then dropped to 7.5 when  Herbert was questionable Tuesday. It’s back on the rise, so if you like the Ducks, grab them as soon as possible.

Week 8 College Football Picks: Navy’s A Double-Digit Home ‘Dog, Oklahoma

 

Each week we’ll be providing our top college football picks. (Season record: 8-5.)

Also check out our NFL “Lookahead Lines” story, finding value (or not) by comparing earlier lines, and identifying recency bias.

Back to the college game…


College Football Picks Week 8: Navy’s a Double-Digit Home Underdog and Oklahoma in a Good Spot vs. TCU

cfb picks oklahoma tcu sports betting


Oklahoma -8 over TCU

It seems like everyone in the world is on Oklahoma this week. I usually try to stay away from games like that but sometimes you just have to ride the public wave to the window and cash the ticket.

This is such a great spot for the Sooners. Oklahoma is coming off a bye and finally fired “defensive” coordinator Mike Stoops. Ruffin McNeill will take over a defense that faces a struggling TCU offense. The Horned Frogs have lost three of their last four games and have scored more than 17 points just once over that span.

TCU is only 2-4 ATS as a home dog in its last six games and 2-7 ATS overall in its last nine. Oklahoma has won four straight over the Horned Frogs with the average margin of victory of 12.2 points. 

I’ll take the Sooners to pull away in this game and cover the eight points.


Kentucky -11 over Vanderbilt

Speaking of good spots, Kentucky finds itself in one this week. The Wildcats are coming off a bye, while Vanderbilt is playing for the eighth straight week and must rebound from a tough loss to Florida where they blew a 21-3 lead.

Kentucky has a major edge here with their rushing offense going against a Vandy defense that’s allowed an average of 257 rushing yards over the last four games. That will be a big problem when facing Kentucky RB Benny Snell and his 5.5 yards per carry.

Vanderbilt quarterback Ke’Shawn Vaughn was injured last week but is expected to play on Saturday. Kentucky has been strong on defense this year holding opponents to 116 yards below their opponents’ season average.

Vanderbilt has been a great fade in conference play going 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games versus SEC opponents. This line opened 10.5 at the SuperBook and moved to 11 where it is at most books as of Wednesday. Kentucky’s five wins this year have all been by 11 points or more. I’ll call for another double-digit victory here.es not used to seeing that offense, especially when I’m getting points (a dozen of ’em).

Read more Week 8 College Football Picks: Navy’s A Double-Digit Home ‘Dog, Oklahoma  on SportsHandle.

Week 7 College Football Picks: Underdog Duke, MSU-PSU Scoring

The post Week 7 College Football Picks: Underdog Duke, MSU-PSU Scoring appeared first on SportsHandle.

 

Each week we’ll be providing our top college football picks. (Season record: 6-3.)

Also check out our NFL “Lookahead Lines” story, finding value (or not) by comparing earlier lines, and identifying recency bias.

Back to the college game…

College Football Week 7 Picks: Underdog Duke to Georgia Tech And a Potentially High-Scoring Big Ten Game

 

Michigan State +13.5 over Penn State
Total: OVER 53

Michigan State has struggled this year and is coming off a disappointing home loss to Northwestern as a 10-point favorite, but two touchdowns in this game seems like a bit much.

The Spartans have thrived in this spot going 7-3 in their last 10 games as an away dog. Michigan State is 4-1 ATS the last five meetings and the OVER is 15-3-1 the last 19 meetings. Both of these teams have played high-scoring games over the last two seasons with the OVER 7-1 in Penn State’s last eight and 6-1 in Michigan’s State’s last seven.

The Spartans rank No. 1 in the nation against the run allowing 33.8 yards per game and 1.38 yards per rush. However, the Spartans give up 305 yards per game (122), so expect a lot of passing by both teams Saturday.

I think we see a spirited effort out of the Spartans this week in a high-scoring game. I’ll take the points and OVER 53 (down from a 56 opener) in a game where I had the total in the low 60s.

Read more Week 7 College Football Picks: Underdog Duke, MSU-PSU Scoring on SportsHandle.

College Football Picks, Predictions For Win Totals: Top 5 ‘Best Bets’

The post College Football Picks, Predictions For Win Totals: Top 5 ‘Best Bets’ appeared first on SportsHandle.

After an interminable wait since Alabama’s exciting 28-23 win over Clemson in the College Football Playoff National Championship, the 2018-2019 college football season is just weeks away. With that, many sportsbooks have posted over/under win totals for all 129 FBS teams and I have attempted to identify some of my “best bets” in this article.

In making these types of plays, I historically try to both “buy low and sell high” depending on the public perception of teams and also pay close attention to marquee coaching changes at schools with large big fan bases. Shopping around for the best number is also key, as the lines are not as tight as a typical full slate of heavily bet games.

Note below that I have “shopped” for lines both at the Westgate SuperBook and the SouthPoint in order to recommend a play that best suits my projections.

College Football Picks, Predictions For Win Totals: Top 5 ‘Best Bets’ and Honorable Mentions

college football picks predictions lines texas longhorns
Head Coach Tom Herman.

1. Texas Longhorns (8.5, o -130/u +110 at the Westgate SuperBook)

While my allegiances lie with my alma mater, the University of Texas, I have not been high on the Longhorns since the disappointing end to the Mack Brown era and the disaster that was Charlie Strong. Speaking of Mack Brown, while Texas hasn’t won the nine games it will take to cover this total since Brown’s final season in 2012, most publications have the Longhorns ranked in the mid-teens in their preseason top 25 polls. I think the Longhorns are a sleeper to make the College Football Playoff this season.

Despite only posting a 7-6 record in 2017, the Longhorns defense was vastly improved and the team suffered an overtime loss to a heavily-favored USC team in Los Angeles and had the ball in Oklahoma’s territory (as 14.5 point underdogs). Texas had a chance to win in the final minutes in the Red River Showdown.

This season Texas will be double-digit favorites and should net four easy wins against Maryland (currently -11, while noting the loss as a double digit favorite to Maryland at home last season), Tulsa, Baylor, and Kansas (currently -7.5). The Horns should actually be favored in every game this season, the lone exception being against Oklahoma (currently +5 after opening at +12).

If Texas can beat USC (currently -4.5 after USC opened as the betting favorite) at home in Week 3, then the College Football Playoff hype machine will be in full effect for Longhorns’ annual tilt with Oklahoma in Dallas, with both teams potentially entering the game with 5-0 records. Even if Texas loses to both USC and OU (which I don’t think will happen), there is still a decent chance that they run the table to secure 10 wins.

Projected regular season record: 10-2.

The play: Over


2. Baylor Bears (6, o -110/u -110 at the SouthPoint)

college football picks lines baylor bears

The Baylor Bears would like to forget a rocky 2017 both on and off the field. Following a tumultuous offseason rocked by the deplorable sexual assault scandal and ultimate firing of head coach Art Briles, the 2017 Bears mustered only a single win — over perennial Big 12 doormat Kansas, and suffered home losses to Liberty, the University of Texas and San Antonio (UTSA).

Charlie Brewer emerged as a legitimate candidate for quarterback of the future in Waco; however, this Baylor team is still very young and inexperienced at most positions and 2019 looks like the more likely year for any turnaround story. While Baylor could conceivably start the season 4-0 with wins over Abilene Christian, UTSA, Duke and Kansas, it is equally conceivable that the Bears fail to win another game, much less the three additional wins that it would take to push the Bears over the 6 win total.

Projected regular season record: 5-7.

The play: Under


3. Washington Huskies (10.5, o +115/u -135 at the SouthPoint)

With Heisman candidate QB Jake Browning entering his senior season, and just one season removed from an appearance in the College Football Playoff, the oddsmakers have made Washington one of the betting favorites to reach this season’s College Football Playoff. It won’t take long to find out if Washington is a contender or a pretender this season, as the Huskies start the season against at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta against Auburn in a de facto home game for the Tigers. Washington is currently a 3-point underdog in this game and a loss would mean that the Huskies would need to run the table to eclipse the 10.5 win mark.

While Washington is fortunate to avoid USC for the second consecutive season, the Huskies always seem to lose a game or two that they shouldn’t, particularly on the road (see their 13-7 road loss as -17.5 favorites at Arizona State last year). The odds are good that Washington falters in at least one of its road games at Utah, UCLA, Oregon, California or Washington State.

Projected regular season record: 10-2.

The play: Under.

Bonus note: If you like the Huskies to cover the total, the Westgate SuperBook is offering the Huskies total at 10 (o -145/u +125). In lieu of taking both sides and paying significant juice on both plays, a simple “hedge” opportunity to consider if you like the under is to take the Huskies +3 against Auburn or even on the money line at +140 and hope that they drop a couple more games down the road.


4. Texas A&M aggies* (7.5, o +110/u -130 at the Westgate SuperBook)

college football picks predictions texas am aggies

The arrival of Jimbo Fisher as head coach has not only caused hopes to skyrocket in College Station for the 2018 season, but has also secured the aggies a token appearance at the tail end of many preseason Top 25 polls. While Texas A&M has talent on the offensive side of the ball, their defense allowed 35 points or more in half of its games last season (and another 55 to Wake Forest in the Belk Bowl) en route to a 7-6 overall record. It will take more than bringing in a big-named coach to correct these problems.

A&M is known for scheduling patsies and 2018 is no exception with “pay to lay down” wins already inked in the books against Northwestern State, Louisiana Monroe and UAB. Finding the next 5 wins needed to go over the win total will be a far greater challenge for Fisher’s squad. The aggies will be heavy underdogs underdog in at least five of their games, including at home against Clemson (currently +12.5) and in three road games Alabama (currently +24), Auburn (projected +7) and Mississippi State (currently +4).

Texas A&M projects to be a small favorite on the road at South Carolina (currently -2), at home against LSU (currently -1.5) and their annual meeting with Arkansas in Dallas always seems to come down to which team has the ball last. In sum, there are plenty of “almost guaranteed” losses and “quite possible” losses on what is a gruesome schedule for the 2018 aggies.

Projected regular season record: 6-6. The play: Under.

*Note: as a Longhorn graduate, I am ethically prohibited from capitalizing the word “Aggies.”


5. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6.5, o Even/u -120 at the Westgate SuperBook)

Similar to the changing of the guard at Texas A&M, Scott Frost (coming off a “National Championship season” at UCF) has the Nebraska faithful believing that the Huskers will rebound from its 4-7 campaign in 2017. Nebraska should have no problem with picking up non-conference wins over Akron and Troy, but will also play a very losable game at home in Week 2 against Colorado.

Like the aggies, the Huskers will be double-digit underdogs at Michigan (currently +16.5), at Wisconsin (currently +16.5) andat Ohio State (currently +21). Absent a massive upset in those 3 games, Nebraska can only suffer two additional losses and hit the over. The Huskers are likely home underdogs against Michigan State (currently +2), road underdogs at Iowa (currently +3) and will undoubtedly go off as underdogs in other several other games once posted. Combining this and the arrival of a trendy new coach seems like the recipe for a disappointing season in Lincoln.

Projected regular season record: 5-7.

The play: Under (Best Bet)


Others receiving votes:

Iowa State Cyclones (6.5, o -120/u EVEN at the Westgate SuperBook and SouthPoint)
Projected regular season record: 5-7
The play: Under

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9, o -115/u +110 at the SouthPoint)
Projected regular season record: 8-4
The play: Under

BYU Cougars (5, o -140/u +120 at the SouthPoint)
Projected regular season record: 6-6
The play: Over

Oklahoma State (8, o -110/u -110 at the Westgate SuperBook)
Projected regular season record: 9-3
The play: Over


Barry McFadden is a co-founding partner of Greathouse Holloway McFadden PLLC in Houston, Texas and has significant experience representing clients in the gaming and sports betting industry.  In addition to his legal practice, Barry and a partner finished in 3rd place in the prestigious Westgate Las Vegas NFL SuperContest in 2015, besting nearly 1800 other entrants for a payday of $181,335.

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