Ballin' on a Budget Wild Card Weekend Results, Super Bowl Value Picks

Ballin' on a Budget Week 5 Picks

I’m confident. This is the week we climb into the green. Even while picking at a 55 percent clip, we’ve just been putting the bulk our money on the losing picks, even when we get 3 or 4 out of 5 picks right in a week. To combat this, we’re going to put the exact same amount of money on all five picks this week. That way, if we get 3 out of 5, we will make some money, as opposed to the last two weeks where that was the case and we actually lost a couple dollars.

There is lots to like this week and actually, the over/unders look more intriguing than most of the point spreads. We’ll take a deeper dive into why that is and what you can expect from Week 5.

Week 5 Picks

Broncos to beat the Jets (-110)

Denver will be playing the Jets on the road and are one-point favorites, so we might as well pick them straight up to get a little more value. The only place that will hurt us is we will lose the bet if there’s a tie. After nearly knocking off the Chiefs at home on Monday Night Football, not only will the Broncos be hungry, they will be desperate. Now at 2-2 and seeing Kansas City might not be slowing down anytime soon, the Broncos need this win more than the Jets do.

Imagine that Broncos pass rush against rookie Sam Darnold, who has struggled mightily lately. It’s just hard to imagine a world where Darnold makes the plays he needs to in order to win this game. Denver is playing on a short week, so it might not be pretty, but expect them to get the job done. Since we’re just betting them straight to win, that’s all they have to do for us to be in the money. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.60.

Texans -3 vs. Cowboys (-110)

Houston finally got its first win of the season last week thanks to iffy decisions from the Colts. When Indy could have punted in the closing minute of overtime to basically ensure a tie, they went for it on fourth and 4 and didn’t pick up the first down. The Texans then just had to drive 10-15 yards to get into field goal range, which they did and kicked the game winning field goal as time expired. Deshaun Watson is starting to get some of his playmaking ability back and it looks like Houston could finally hit its stride.

They’re at home, which helps a ton. Dak Prescott did have his first above average game in recent memory last Sunday, so we will see if his strong play continues. You shouldn’t rely on that happening, though, especially against a stout Texans defense. With Houston looking to build some momentum and climb back into the playoff picture, it’s safe to pick them as field goal favorites at home. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.60.

Ravens-Browns OVER 47 points (-110)

Let’s stop fooling ourselves into thinking these AFC North match ups are defensive showdowns anymore. The truth is, most of the defenses in the division stink. Cleveland actually probably has the best one of the bunch. The offenses are something to like, though, and that’s why I love this over. Cleveland has been involved in shootouts ever since Baker Mayfield took over and win or lose, they’re putting up points. This should be a competitive game and the only way we fall to the under is if this becomes a battle of field position in the first half.

With the way Cleveland’s been playing the last two weeks, expect this to be a competitive game. It’s not hard to imagine both teams climbing into the 20’s. It will all come down to these teams cashing in red zone trips with touchdowns instead of field goals. Both Baltimore and Cleveland rank in the top 10 (Baltimore fourth, Cleveland ninth) in touchdown percentage inside the red zone, which is a good indication the over has a great chance of hitting. Let’s hope for another shootout. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.60.

Jaguars-Chiefs UNDER 49 points (-110)

The Chiefs are coming off an emotional win on a short week. Jacksonville will now be the second tough defense in a row that Patrick Mahomes and Co. will have faced. He struggled early against Denver, but figured things out late. Can he do it against the best defense in the league? It’s going to be tough. By no means am I saying the Chiefs can’t win this game, but this might finally be their first low-scoring affair of the season.

Really, our biggest fear should be Blake Bortles having another stellar performance and putting up points for the Jags, but he’s been so up and down, it’s hard to say he will be effective. If the Jaguars get up early and the Chiefs are playing catch up, this thing is going to go over in a hurry. Under pretty much any other scenario, it’s likely we’ll see the under. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.60.

Dolphins-Bengals UNDER 49.5 (-110)

It seems like the Dolphins were exposed as frauds last week with their blowout loss against the Patriots. Cincinnati also seemed to cement itself as an AFC contender with a big come-from-behind win over the Falcons to improve to 3-1. With Joe Mixon potentially back in the fold, the Bengals’ offense will be that much more explosive. This should be a Bengals win, so we just need to hope they’re limited to around 30 points.

As long as they’re held around that mark and the Cincy defense applies pressure on Ryan Tannehill, it doesn’t seem likely Miami is going to be able to keep up. If running back Kenyan Drake is finally able to break out for the Dolphins, it could be a whole other story, but until we see that happen, we’re not going to bet on it. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.60.

The parlay option: If you take your $20 and parlay all five of these picks today, you’re in for a big pay day if we go 5 for 5. If we go perfect on picks this week, it would be a total payout of $507.06. Let’s cross our fingers for that, huh?

Unlike past weeks, we will have a much closer eye on over/unders this week. It should be an interesting slate of games. We’ll check back in later in the week, hopefully to recap a perfect week, and our fourth winning week out of five this season.

NFL Week 3 Props: Vikings Rams

NFL Week 4 Thursday Night Football Props: Vikings vs. Rams

At the beginning of the season, there were many who firmly believed that tonight’s matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the Los Angeles Rams would be a preview of the NFC championship game.

The Rams are currently tied for third in total points scored (102) and first in points allowed (36),  giving them the best point differential(+66)  in the NFL by a long shot –  the next closest are the Ravens at +46.

Todd Gurley has recorded 4 touchdowns and 255 yards through three weeks, while Brandin Cooks has caught for 336 yards, but is yet to find the end zone.

If you live in New Jersey and want to open a legal sports betting account, click here.

The Vikings are one of four teams to start the season 1-1-1, an anomaly unto itself. While week one featured a strong performance against the 49ers as their defense recorded three interceptions and a fumble recovery.

Week 2 versus the Packers ended in a tie, but could have gone either way with Vikings kicker Daniel Carlson missing 3 field goals and Clay Matthews getting called for roughing the passer on a play that would have sealed if for the Packers.

And then there’s week 3. Anyone who follows the NFL was rightfully shocked by the Buffalo Bills 27-6 win in Minnesota, as the Vikings were a 16.5 point favorite.

Keep in mind, it’s still early in the season, and a win on Thursday would discard any fears had by the Vikings faithful.

The props below are available to BET NOW if you live in the state of New Jersey.

Vikings vs. Rams Props



Super Bowl 53 Odds: Updated for Week 4

Key takeaways from week 3:

  • Rams remain the comfortable favorite to win Super Bowl 53 as they lead the league in point differential. And, they will likely be in the same position on top next week as they play host to their cross-town rivals on Sunday.
  • Vikings, Patriots, Packers and Jaguars all show red after losses, but surprisingly still remain in the top Ten, mostly due to their legacy brands as top NFL teams.
  • Despite a 3-0 start, the Miami Dolphins still have not penetrated the Top 15 teams most likely to win Super Bowl 53!
  • Biggest jump: Buffalo Bills (60%)
  • Biggest drop: San Francisco 49ers (186%)

Super Bowl 53 Odds


Ballin' on a Budget Wild Card Weekend Results, Super Bowl Value Picks

Ballin' on a Budget Week 3 Results

I’ll have whatever the NFL was having this weekend. We mostly survived the weirdness of the Packers and Vikings both being dominated by seemingly inferior teams as well as the Saints and Falcons playing first to 100. As a whole, we went 3 for 5 this week. If you put equal money on all our picks, you’d have made a little bit of dough. We did put a little more stock in the Chiefs-49ers under, which went over, making us only slight winners on the weekend. But hey, after last week’s brutality, we’ll take it.

Ballin’ on a Budget Week 3 Results

LOSS: Packers -3.5 over Redskins (-110): Redskins 31, Packers 17.

I think it’s pretty clear for us to see that Aaron Rodgers, is in fact, significantly injured. The Redskins defense, which had already been pretty solid this season, gave Rodgers and Green Bay fits all day. We also didn’t anticipate Adrian Peterson having a throwback game, where he carries the workload and finds the end zone twice.

Until Aaron Rodgers is fully healthy or they sit him down for a few weeks, I would stay away from betting on any games involving the Packers. The extent of Rodgers’ injury and in what ways it is limiting him is just too uncertain. Total win: $0.

WIN: Bills +17.5 over Vikings (-115): Bills 27, Vikings 6.

Now, if only we had bet the Bills money line in this game. This was the biggest upset in the NFL in the last 23 years based on point spread. I won’t pretend for a minute that I thought Buffalo would win this game, especially without LeSean McCoy, but I will take credit for telling you to bet on any NFL team that is a three-score underdog. Points are at such a premium in the NFL compared to college football, that asking a team to cover three scores should be relatively easy.

This bet was over before halftime as the Bills randomly jumped out to a 24-0 lead and it was clear we were making money. I don’t know if you want to call this an aberration or what, but let it be a reminder to you that double-digit underdogs are usually a good bet with the spread when it comes to the NFL. Total win: $5.61.

LOSS: Chiefs-49ers UNDER 57 points (-110): Chiefs 38, 49ers 27.

We hypothesized that San Francisco might be able to have more success stopping Patrick Mahomes since they had more film on him. That was not the case. Mahomes continued his electric start to his career by throwing for 314 yards and three touchdowns. At least for now, this kid seems like the real deal and we didn’t give him enough credit. Total win: $0.

The flow of the game played a big factor in this game being a fairly easy over hit. Kansas City went up big, putting them into bend-don’t-break defense, which allowed San Francisco to put more points on the board. It was the perfect storm adding up to us losing on this under.

WIN: Panthers -3 over Bengals (EVEN): Panthers 31, Bengals 21.

With Carolina being at home and the Bengals having not won three straight games in three seasons, we felt pretty good about this one going in. While it did get a little close for comfort at points in the second half, Cam Newton and Co. were in control for most of the game. Playing at home, they were able to nab the 10-point win and easily cover the three-point spread.

The really great thing about this game is that it pays out even money, something relatively rare for a point spread, meaning oddsmakers were leaning slightly toward the Bengals to cover three points. It was good we trusted our instincts on this one with a team coming off a tough loss, returning home to play a team that has traditionally been very inconsistent. It ended up paying off in a big way. Total win: $10.

WIN: Seahawks -1.5 over Cowboys (-110): Seahawks 24, Cowboys 13.

This was another case of us trusting our gut and the eye test and like the Panthers-Bengals game, it paid off. Seattle needed a win to keep hope alive on the playoff hunt. The Rams are going to run away with this division, which leaves Seattle to compete with teams outside the division, especially now that the 49ers are without QB Jimmy Garoppolo, for one of the NFC’s two wild card spots.

Playing in Seattle, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks just seem to be a different team. Even coming off a relatively unimpressive win over the Giants on Sunday Night Football, there was no reason to believe Dallas would march into Seattle and take care of business in a tough road environment. The Seahawks dominated from start to finish and we got our check. Total win: $5.73.

BONUS PICKS: Our bonus picks went 1 for 2 this week with us taking the over 39.5 in the Browns-Jets game that ended at 38 and us taking the Colts +6 against the Eagles in a game they lost by just four.

PIGGY BANK: $56.71 (-5.5% return on investment)


Week 3 helped us inch closer to the green after Week 2 decimated us and just about every other NFL bettor. We will look for more “gut feeling” picks like we did with the Panthers and Seahawks in the week ahead and see if it pays off. Look for Week 4 picks coming in a column later this week.

Ballin' on a Budget Wild Card Weekend Results, Super Bowl Value Picks

Ballin' on a Budget Week 3 Picks

After a week that saw us get brutalized as much as the rest of the NFL betting population last week, NFL’s Week 3 provides an opportunity for us to get back on track. To recap how bad last week was for everybody: the 10 most popular team picks in the Vegas Super Contest went a total of 2-8. Pretty much no one had a good week. However, there is plenty to like this week, at least on paper.

As always, remember that we’re ballin’ on a budget, so we have $20 to spend and we’re hoping to spend it wisely on five more games this week. We’re chasing our losses from last week, but that won’t be the case for long. This week, instead of going with three spreads and two over/unders, we’re going with four spreads and just one over/under. Without further adieu, away we go …

Ballin’ on a budget week 3 picks

Packers -3.5 over Redskins (EVEN)

That extra half point is a fickle beast and I debated including this pick in the Week 3 column for that exact reason. With this game being in Washington, there are plenty of scenarios we could see play out where the Packers win by a single field goal and we lose this bet. However, after a frustrating game against the Vikings that they should have won, the Packers should be out for blood in their first road game of the year.

Aaron Rodgers may be on one leg, but he’s better than nearly every other quarterback in the league even with that being the case. Washington showed against the Colts that they are potentially inept on offense without any go-to playmakers. Alex Smith isn’t likely to turn the ball over, but the offense is also more likely to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, which is reason enough to take Green Bay even money at -3.5 instead of -3. The bet: $3 for total payout of $6.

Bills +17.5 over Vikings (-115)

Don’t get me wrong, the Vikings will win this game handily, but 17.5 points in the NFL is a ton. You’re telling me Minnesota has to win by at least three scores to cover the spread. Is that possible? Of course. Is it likely? I don’t think so. Buffalo gets to play indoors and on turf and while they’re facing one of the best defenses in the league, they should be able to move the ball enough, if LeSean McCoy is healthy, to stay within 17 points.

At this point, it appears the Bills and Cardinals are the two worst teams in the league. Most would probably rank the Vikings as one of the best. On any given Sunday, though, I’m not giving the best team in football 17.5 points on the worst team in football. Minnesota could cover, but this line seems like an overreaction to the Bills’ comically bad start. The bet: $3 for total payout of $5.61.

Seahawks -1.5 over Cowboys (-110)

This is a real test for Seattle and it might define the rest of Pete Carroll’s tenure with the Seahawks. They sit at 0-2 after losing to two average teams in the Broncos and Bears. Both those games were on the road, though, and they finally get some home cooking in Week 3. This is a huge deal as Seattle traditionally has been an elite home team and an average road team. Over the last four seasons, the Seahawks are a combined 23-9 at home and 18-15-1 on the road.

Dallas is riding high off a 20-13 win over the Giants, whose offensive line looked terrible on Sunday Night Football. Nothing happened in that game to convince me that Dak Prescott is any better than an average quarterback, so he’s not single-handedly going to torch Seattle. Ezekiel Elliott might. The Seahawks’ biggest problem is they don’t have the number of playmakers on that defense that they used to and the offense is banged up. In the end, this game is do or die for Seattle. While they may not make the playoffs this season, they will keep some hope alive by turning away the visiting Cowboys Sunday. The bet: $3 for total payout of $5.73.

Panthers -3 over Bengals (EVEN)

With this bet being even money, there’s great value here. Carolina is back at home and in the last few years, we haven’t really seen the Bengals sustain any type of success. Cincinnati has not won three games in a row since it won its first eight games of the 2015 season. We know they will be without starting running back, Joe Mixon, which is a huge deal. Giovanni Bernard is a great pass catcher out of the backfield, but he’s simply not the same playmaker, every-down back Mixon is.

Carolina showed flashes on offense against the Falcons and being back in a comfortable home environment should help them. They know the NFC South is going to be as tough as always to win and a victory at home this week is vital. Getting that field goal advantage on the line is great, because it allows you some breathing room to earn a push if they do win by just three. The bet: $5 for total payout of $10.

49ers vs. Chiefs UNDER 57 points

You might look at this and scratch your head as the Chiefs just played in a game against the Steelers that reached 79 total points last week. Meanwhile, the 49ers reached a total of exactly 57 in their 30-27 win over the Lions on Sunday. San Francisco’s defense is nothing to write home about, but they have an extra week of film on rookie QB Patrick Mahomes that may take him down a notch. Kansas City’s defense is also pretty stout; they gave up a ton of points to the Steelers, because Pittsburgh was playing catch up and K.C. was playing bend-don’t-break defense.

You’d expect this game to be close, although through two games, I’m still not sure how good either of these two teams is. The Chiefs are at home, so you probably give them the nod in the game, but this has the feel of a 24-17 game, which leaves us 16 points beneath the under with plenty of wiggle room in case the game is a little more offensive than anticipated. This looks like the biggest lock of the week. The bet: $6 for total payout of $11.45.

Bonus picks: A couple other picks I like this week, but am not confident enough in to officially include in the column are: Colts +6.5 at Eagles (-110) and Jets-Browns over 39.5 (-110). Indy has looked good through two games and are visiting an Eagles team coming off a road loss to the Buccaneers. Carson Wentz is back under center for Philly, but how effective will he be? That’s a legitimate question mark and enough to make you consider taking the Colts as almost a touchdown dog. If that line moves up to +7 jump all over it.

In the Jets-Browns game, there’s plenty of reason not to bet. Reason No. 1 would be that you have to watch the game. After that, though, there’s actually plenty of reason to bet this over. Let’s say we anticipate a close game: 23-20 or 27-20 is entirely within the realm of possibility. Each of those types of scores would get us our over. We do run the risk that one of these offenses lays a complete egg, but with an over/under so low, it’s hard to resist taking the over. Plus, that will give you something to root for in an otherwise forgettable Thursday Night game.

Super Bowl 53 Odds: Updated for Week 3

Key takeaways from week 2:

  • Rams and Jaguars Continue to Soar!
  • Patriots still top contender despite loss.
  • Florida is the place to be with Jaguars, Dolphins, and Bucs each off to 2-0 start.
  • Bills, Cardinals continue to struggle.
  • Giants, Lions, and Seahawks all 0-2 after tough openers.


Data courtesy of Bovada.

NFL Week 2 Props: First Head Coach To Be Fired

Every year someone has to be the first to go – so we are bringing you the odds on the first coach to be fired. It’s interesting to note that of the seven new head coaches hired this year, only Mike Vrabel is on the bookmaker chopping block.


Data provided by Bovada.

Preseason Week Four Spreads

As we prepare for the final week of preseason, bettors have their last chance to put some money down on wildly unpredictable games. But remember, even the oddsmakers don’t have great reads on the preseason so if you’re in tune with a specific team, you might be able to find more value in the preseason. Check out our guide to betting on the preseason for more helpful tips. Here are the spreads:


Indianapolis COLTS    
Cincinnati BENGALS   – 2½
Miami DOLPHINS    
Atlanta FALCONS   – 3
New York JETS   – 2
Philadelphia EAGLES    
Cleveland BROWNS    
Detroit LIONS   – 2½
New England PATRIOTS    
New York GIANTS   – 2½
Washington REDSKINS    
Baltimore RAVENS   – 4½
Carolina PANTHERS    
Pittsburgh STEELERS   – 2½
Jacksonville JAGUARS    
Tampa Bay BUCCANEERS   – 1½
Buffalo BILLS    
Chicago BEARS   – 3
Minnesota VIKINGS    
Tennessee TITANS   – 1
Los Angeles RAMS    
New Orleans SAINTS   – 4
Dallas COWBOYS    
Houston TEXANS   – 4
Green Bay PACKERS    
Kansas City CHIEFS   – 4
Denver BRONCOS    
Arizona CARDINALS   – 3
Los Angeles CHARGERS    
San Francisco 49ERS   – 3½
Oakland RAIDERS    
Seattle SEAHAWKS   – 3

Data provided by Westgate Superbook

Super Bowl Odds for Every Team Updated Weekly

The preseason has almost begun and that means it is time to place some wagers on the big game that will happen six months for now. In the table below are all the odds for possible Super Bowl champions alongside their odds when the wagers first opened. See how the offseason and the draft may have positively or negatively affected teams odds in the table below:

Data Provided by Westgate

[table id=14 /]