Week 13 is here and it’s time to scan the board for the best touchdown scorer props of the weekend.
The approach is finding plus-odds spots. Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is in a great spot to score this weekend, but at -200, we’re not chasing limited value.
Here are 10 touchdown props I’ve got my eye on for the NFL’s Week 13 action:
Colts WR Zach Pascal: +210
It’s always a good bet to slot in players who get the Houston Texans that week, considering how poor their defense has been throughout much of the season.
This week it’s Pascal, who is tied for the lead amongst Colts pass-catchers in red zone looks, with 11.
Pascal is the clear No. 2 receiver, playing over 90% of the snaps, and should have his opportunities against a vulnerable Houston secondary.
–Bengals RB Samaje Perine: +500
How do you feel about a vulture pick? At +500, I’m seriously intrigued by Perine.
The Chargers have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, and only one team sees more running back touchdowns against them than LA.
Joe Mixon is the bell-cow in this offense, but Perine has six red zone carries this season and will spell the Bengals top back at times in this game.
To me, it’s a worthy selection at these odds. It helps that this game is tied for the highest over/under of the weekend, at 50.5 points. Touchdowns will be scored.
–Eagles RB Boston Scott: +260
We included Scott in this piece last week and he delivered, so we’re loading him back again. No team allows more touchdowns per game to running backs than the New York Jets, seeing 1.91 per game.
It’s Scott and Miles Sanders in this backfield, but Scott has taken on a red zone role and will have his chances on Sunday.
–Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow: +140
Las Vegas ranks inside the top-ten in pass attempts and will be moving the ball through the air as much as they can against what has been a generous Washington secondary for much of the season.
In comes Renfrow, the top receiver for the Raiders. Renfrow leads the wide receivers in red zone targets with 12. Washington gives up the fourth most touchdowns per game to WRs.
–Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth: +210
Freiermuth has a touchdown in four of his last five games, and at +210 against a vulnerable Baltimore secondary, I’m liking his chances at another.
Freiermuth has 15 red zone looks this year, second on the team behind Najee Harris. The Ravens see the fourth-highest number of TDs to tight ends.
–Vikings WR Adam Thielen: +105
To slightly deviate from the odds from above, I love Thielen at +105.
The Lions secondary has been awful all season, a tremendous target for all wide receiver props. Thielen has 10 scores on the year and will look to make it 11 against a Detroit team that can’t stop pass-catchers.
–Seahawks RB Adrian Peterson: +290
If you want to take a flier pick, why not newly-signed Peterson on the Seahawks?
Pete Carroll claims Peterson was signed because Seattle wants to win now. With Alex Collins banged up, there’s a realistic chance AP sees meaningful time on Sunday.
San Francisco allows the fourth-most touchdowns to running backs.
–Cardinals TE Zach Ertz: +190
Ertz has been a focal point of the Arizona red zone offense since joining the team, and with Kyler Murray expected to return, I like his chances to find the end zone once again.
The Bears have given up three touchdowns to tight ends in their past three games. Ertz scored twice last week.
–Buccaneers TE Cameron Brate: +450
I’ve mentioned in previous articles, a baseline strategy to target touchdown props is looking at the games with the highest over/unders. Logic suggests more touchdowns will be scored. The Bucs-Falcons game fits the bill, with a total at 50.5 points.
The Tampa passing attack is loaded, and Brate is the one that gives us the best potential payout at +450 odds.
Brate has seven red zone targets in his past three games and plays around 35% of the snaps.
–Colts QB Carson Wentz: +450
For a fun one, we go back to the Houston Texans. This time, it’s Wentz to rush one in at +450.
Houston allows 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game, the second-highest mark in the NFL. Is it that crazy that we bet on this big-bodied quarterback to take one himself near the goalline?
Touchdown props should be a mixture of data-based decisions with a mix of fun. This certainly sways to the fun side, but I’m rolling with it on Sunday.
–By Griffin Carroll (@Griffybets), Field Level Media