Tag: Prop

Oklahoma's Dillon Gabriel (8) warms up before an NCAA football game between University of Oklahoma (OU) and Iowa State at the Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., on Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023.

Texas vs. Oklahoma: Preview, Prop Pick and Prediction

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Finally, entering their sixth game, the No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners have a chance to show whether they belong in the College Football Playoff conversation as they meet the No. 3 Texas Longhorns in Dallas.

The Longhorns passed their big early-season test, stopping then-No. 3 Alabama 34-24, and are they rolling into the schools’ final Red River Rivalry game as Big 12 members.

Both schools are leaving for the Southeastern Conference beginning next season.

Unbeaten and relatively untested, Oklahoma (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) seeks a reversal from last year’s meeting with Texas, a 49-0 Longhorns victory in which Sooners starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel did not play due to injury.

Gabriel is healthy and ready for Saturday, though, and Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers needs to stay sharp to give Texas (5-0, 2-0) a chance to cover the 6.5-point spread.

Is there betting value on underdog Oklahoma? The Sooners have improved week to week and appear primed for a big performance.

Or is there more value on the total?

We have news, trends and quotes — along with our game prediction with a best bet as well as a prop pick for good measure.

–Kickoff: Noon, ET
–Television: ABC
–Location: Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas
–Point Spread, Total: Texas -6.5, Total 60.5

QUICK PICK

This feels like a classic edition is coming, with the rewards for the quarterback who makes fewer mistakes.

Combined, these offenses have accounted for 27 touchdown passes with only three interceptions, clearing the way for the better defense to take the spotlight.

Gabriel, a senior, may find some big-game jitters. Ewers seemed to exorcise his demons against Alabama and should provide more stability.

Both defenses rank in the top 12 nationally in points allowed per game, in the top 10 in third-down defense, in the top 20 in turnover margin and in the top 30 in total defense.

Lost amid the offensive fireworks displayed by the Sooners is the fact they have held opponents to 11 points or fewer in three of their five games.

Oklahoma coach Brent Venables has turned the defense around, not unexpected given his previous work as Clemson’s defensive coordinator.

The Sooners should be able to dramatically slow the Texas ground game and show Ewers and the Longhorns plenty of elite schemes and looks.

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian, meanwhile, has a wealth of tools to employ. His in-game adjustments figure to be just enough to push his Longhorns to 6-0 with the national title very much in reach.

However, 6.5 points is a little too much in a neutral-site game, with attendance split on the 50-yard line.

The pick: Texas 31, Oklahoma 26
The bet: Under 60.5

THE NEWS

Last season, Ewers threw for 289 yards and four touchdowns with one interception against Oklahoma.

He has been excellent this season, completing 66 percent of his passes for 1,358 yards, 10 touchdowns and one interception. Ewers also has run for five scores.

Gabriel has put up even better numbers, albeit against the likes of Arkansas State, SMU, Tulsa, Cincinnati and Iowa State. That said, Gabriel has hit on 75.2 percent of his passes for 1,593 yards.

No doubt, Gabriel has seen plenty of potential trouble watching Longhorns video this week.

“They’re very physical,” Gabriel said of the Longhorns’ defense. “They’ve been dominant in their first five games. Just have been playing really good football, so it’ll be a great challenge.”

Gabriel threw 25 TD passes last season, and he already has 15 touchdown tosses — with only two interceptions — this season. He has four rushing scores, which leads the Sooners.

THEY SAID IT

“Coach Venables, he’d been doing it too long at too high of a level to think they weren’t going to get that thing fixed. I told you last year that he would.”

–Texas coach Steve Sarkisian on Oklahoma coach Brent Venables’ defense.

PROP PICK

According to Action Network numbers, Oklahoma tops the nation in stuff rate, sits third in defensive line yards and is 10th in expected points added per rush.

The Sooners are a perfect 5-0 against the spread, and they should show enough to slow the Longhorns’ attack, or at least create the need for adjustments during the first half.

Texas, meanwhile, has gathered momentum after its victory in Tuscaloosa, suffocating its next three opponents (Wyoming, 31-10; at Baylor, 38-6; Kansas, 40-14).

The Longhorns’ defense has set the tone early, too, holding its five opponents to first-half outputs of 3, 6, 7, 6 and 7 points.

The prop: Texas -2.5 for the full game, parlayed to the under 31.5 points in the first half (+130 at BetMGM)

–Field Level Media

Georgia wide receiver Ladd McConkey (84) looks on during warm ups before the start of the Bulldogs' game against UAB in Athens, Ga., on Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023.

Auburn vs. Georgia: Preview, Prop Pick and Prediction

Posted on | by Field Level Media

On a Saturday lacking heavyweight matchups, count on the SEC to kick up some intrigue.

Two-time defending champion Georgia hits the road to meet the Auburn Tigers and the No. 1-ranked Bulldogs are leaving Athens for the first time all season.

Top-ranked and favored to three-peat, Georgia has been largely untested through four weeks.

First-year Tigers coach Hugh Freeze doesn’t have nearly the weapons held by his counterpart, Kirby Smart, but his team presents another measuring stick for the Bulldogs.

Georgia cruised to a 49-21 home win over UAB last week. But the Bulldogs were not particularly dominant in a 24-14 victory over SEC foe South Carolina the week prior.

Is there betting value on 14.5-point underdog Auburn, or is Georgia about to put together a complete effort and rout the Tigers?

We have news, trends and quotes — along with our spread pick and a prop pick for good measure.

–Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
–Television: CBS
–Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Ala.
–Point Spread, Total: Georgia -14.5, Total 45.5

QUICK PICK

If Auburn wants to bring more than a scare on Saturday, the ground game must be efficient against a Georgia defense that has allowed opponents’ rushing attacks success.

Auburn will try desperately to create first downs with an early run game. Unfortunately, that is an open secret and, with the Tigers’ one-dimensional offense, the plan could be scuttled before halftime.

Not good, given the limited resources from the Auburn air attack, which ranks among the worst in SEC passing metrics.

Auburn (3-1) tries to dominate on the ground, but Georgia likely will stifle the Tigers rushing attack and force a shift to the passing game.

Georgia’s defense is allowing only 87 rushing yards per game this season.

Tigers quarterback Payton Thorne managed only 44 passing yards in last week’s 27-10 loss at Texas A&M.

How are the Tigers expected to deal with a Georgia defense that is getting healthier?

Georgia has all the capability to bury poor passing teams, and should be able to turn this into a rout.

Add the fact that Smart motivates his team in hostile environments. When favored on the road, Georgia is 25-2 straight up and 19-8 against the spread.

Let’s eat.

The pick: Georgia 34, Auburn 14.

THE NEWS

Georgia (4-0) aims to push its winning streak to 22 games.

This matchup offers Georgia quarterback Carson Beck an opportunity to firmly announce his presence as a leader as he makes his first career road start.

The junior has completed 72.7 percent of his passes, throwing for six touchdowns and only one interception.

Beck had a career-high 338 yards and three touchdowns last week.

The Bulldogs have won five straight regular-season games over the Tigers since a 40-17 loss on Nov. 11, 2017. Just weeks later, Georgia beat Auburn 28-7 in the SEC title game.

Georgia scored touchdowns on all six visits to the red zone last week when it rolled up 582 yards of total offense despite three turnovers.

When Auburn faces similar talent (Power Five games, for example), it tends to struggle. The Tigers barely beat a middling Pac-12 team, Cal, 14-10, and then were dominated on the stat sheet and on the field by Texas A&M, gaining only half the Aggies’ yardage amount.

In those two games, Cal and Texas A&M, Auburn failed to reach 230 yards of total offense.

Thorne has thrown four touchdowns and three interceptions in four games and was replaced by Robby Ashford last Saturday.

Freeze was leaning toward giving Thorne another start.

The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are far from one-dimensional — as one would expect when their recruiting classes are consistently filled with future NFL players.

Running back Daijuan Edwards averages almost six yards a carry and all-everything tight end Brock Bowers already has 22 receptions for more than 250 yards.

THEY SAID IT

“It’s not all Payton, but sometimes it is and he owns it. We had a good meeting (Sunday) night and we just got to try this week to get a plan in place that we can all execute and all understand. And that falls on (offensive coordinator) Philip (Montgomery) and his staff and ultimately on me.”

— Auburn coach Hugh Freeze on starting quarterback Payton Thorne.

PROP PICK

Let’s guard against a nasty back-door cover by teasing the margin to Georgia -9.5 and using that in a BetMGM same-game parlay with Georgia to score more than 27.5 points.

The prop: Georgia -9.5 with Georgia over 27.5 points scored (-115).

–Field Level Media

Jan 9, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) runs the ball against San Francisco 49ers defensive back Dontae Johnson (27) in the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

NFC Championship Same Game Parlay: 49ers vs Rams

Posted on | by Field Level Media

The second game of Conference Championship weekend in the NFL is an NFC West battle between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams, who are both seeking their second Super Bowl appearance in the past three years.

These defenses are much stouter than on the AFC side, so our Same Game Parlay is just three legs and comes to you with +434 odds at FanDuel.

3-Leg SGP
–Cooper Kupp 90+ receiving yards
–Deebo Samuel TD
–Rams moneyline

Cooper Kupp 90+ receiving yards:
Kupp has been near automatic this season, averaging 115.3 receiving yards per game and leading the NFL in all three receiving categories.

His over/under is currently 103.5 yards. It’s a number I like, but we bring a discounted total over to our SGP for some insurance.

Kupp has gone over this total in 17 of 19 games this season, a tremendous hit-rate and one we can feel confident about.

He has been rock-solid against this Niners defense in the two previous meetings this season, finishing with 122 and 118 receiving yards.

San Francisco has been generous to wide receiver success this season and considering Kupp has had big games both times, it’s reasonable to expect another big game.

Kupp should be able to get open deep for multiple big plays. San Francisco has allowed 54 passing plays of 20-plus yards this season, 13th-most in the NFL.

Deebo Samuel TD:
Samuel has a nose for the end zone and the swiss army knife will be a focal point of the San Francisco offense on Sunday, just as he has been all season.

Samuel has a touchdown in 12 of 18 games this season and three total against the Rams. He has scored on the ground in both games against Los Angeles and I expect the 49ers to have some success moving the ball.

Samuel gives us flexibility on how he’ll score and I like the consistency and utilization from the 49ers’ weapon.

Rams moneyline:
We end with a moneyline addition, going with the Rams to exact revenge after losing six consecutive games to San Francisco.

I just believe Los Angeles is the superior team. I think the Rams’ defense, namely their defensive line, is the best in football, and success often starts in the trenches.

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is playing great football and is far superior to counterpart Jimmy Garoppolo. He was brought to Los Angeles for this moment and with the only defensive vulnerability on the field the San Francisco secondary, the Rams are well-equipped to take advantage on Sunday.

I think coach Sean McVay and the Rams get the 49ers monkey off their back and go on to be the second team in a row to play host to the Super Bowl in their home stadium.

That wraps the +434 SGP for the NFC Championship Game. Kupp is my favorite addition of the bunch, so even if you don’t agree with the other inclusions I think he is the safest addition you can wager on.

Enjoy the game!

–Griffin Carroll (@griffybets), Field Level Media

Oct 17, 2021; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones (11) warms up before the game between the Browns and the Arizona Cardinals at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Griffin Carroll: NFL Week 12 TD prop picks

Posted on | by Field Level Media

As we prepare for Week 12 in the NFL, I’m returning with touchdown scorer props for the Sunday slate.

Instead of the five picks I’ve done the past few weeks, I’m doubling the group to 10. Consider the players I have below and at the odds these props have, hitting just two out of five could net you a profitable day.

Another option is to juice up some parlays by combining some of these picks for a potentially big payout.
No matter how you choose to navigate these TD spots, know that I feel good about all of them.

Evan Engram, TE, Giants: +290
The Eagles have allowed eight touchdowns to TEs this season, good for third-most on a per-game basis.

With Kyle Rudolph banged up and potentially set to miss this game, Engram figures to play nearly every snap once again in an advantageous matchup.

Engram saw five targets last week and has scored twice this season.

Boston Scott, RB Eagles: +310
We stay in this game, picking a known Giant-killer in Eagles running back Boston Scott.

Scott is expected to see an expanded role this week with Jordan Howard out, and there’s been something about the New York Giants that elicits a big game from Scott.

Scott has played the Giants four times in the past two years, scoring a combined six touchdowns in those games.

No team has been running more often than the Eagles the past four weeks, and Scott is going to get his opportunities in this backfield.

Laquon Treadwell, WR, Jaguars: +400
With Jamal Agnew out for the season, Treadwell now becomes the third Jaguars receiver. Only one team allows more touchdowns per game than the Falcons and Treadwell brings some tremendous value at +400.

Treadwell played 72 percent of the offensive snaps last week and saw three targets.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers: +175
Aiyuk has been turning it on of late, averaging 6.5 targets per game in his past four, with two touchdowns in that span.

Minnesota allows the fourth-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers, and Aiyuk offers more value than Deebo Samuel at these odds.

Kendrick Bourne, WR, Patriots: +210
Sticking with defenses that allow more touchdowns to the wide receiver position, we’ve got the Titans.

Tennessee gives up the sixth-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers, and Bourne has been leading New England’s pass-catchers in production lately.

Bourne has four or more targets in five straight games with just one touchdown to show for it. With Mac Jones continuing to show his comfortability in this offense, it’s easier to trust the Patriots’ receivers.

DJ Moore, WR, Panthers: +190
Moore is the top receiver on this Carolina team by a significant margin, and +190 is strong value for a WR1.

Moore scored last week in Cam Newton’s first week as a starter and draws a Dolphins team that allows the fifth-most passing touchdowns per game.

Noah Fant, TE, Broncos: +210

This one’s straightforward. Fant leads all Broncos pass-catchers in red zone looks and plays a Chargers defense that gives up the most TDs per game to the tight end position.

Fant is a key part of this offense and will be looking to find pay dirt in a pivotal divisional fight.

Rex Burkhead, RB, Texans: +275
You’re likely on the strategy now with these touchdown scorers: finding defenses that are particularly vulnerable to a certain position.

Well, in comes the New York Jets, who are by far the most generous defense to running back success.

The Jets allow 2.1 touchdowns per game to running backs, and I like Burkhead to capitalize.

Burkhead took 18 carries last week, a season-high, and had three looks in the red zone. He’s a part of this offense and brings some strong value at +275.

Ryan Griffin, TE, Jets: +380
With Tyler Kroft on IR, Griffin has been the Jets’ top tight end. Griffin has 13 targets in his past three games and faces a Texans team that has been generous to all positions, but tight ends in particular.

Only three teams allow more tight end touchdowns than Houston, and with Griffin’s usage, he’s worth a look.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, Browns: +300
I love Peoples-Jones at +300 on “Sunday Night Football” in what is a crucial AFC North game for the Browns.
Peoples-Jones is WR2 in Cleveland since the release of Odell Beckham Jr. and will play a Baltimore defense that has been susceptible to deep passing plays all season.

Peoples-Jones has three touchdowns in his past three games and is the Browns vertical threat. At these odds, I’m loading up the Browns’ young pass-catcher and betting on an explosive play.

-Follow Griffin Carroll (@griffybets) and check out his work at bettingwithdata.com.